Suicide bomber problems

Here's an interesting datum about suicide bombings in Iraq:

[T]he number of vehicle-borne improvised explosive device [VBIED] attacks in Iraq has declined dramatically in recent months. According to a source familar with the totals, there were rougly 125 VBIED attacks in Iraq in May; by August, that number had declined to 68. Another stat you won't find in The New York Times: since the Iraq War began, at least 25% of all VBEIDs have been found and cleared before they detonated. That translates into hundreds--perhaps thousands--of lives saved. With the decrease in VBIED attacks, there has been a corresponding increase in attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). But (again) you won't hear the reason for that shift in tactics. Using IEDs allows the jihadists to conserve strained personnel resources. Apparently, there are fewer suicide bombers willing to die for the cause, and fewer fighters available for direct attacks against coalition forces, prompting a shift to less risky IED attacks, which require fewer personnel.

I noted in November 2004 that,

Speaking again of jihadis, I think the volunteer pool is getting pretty dry. Notably absent from bin Laden's recent tape was his usual clarion call for more "martyrdom operations." Whassamatta, Osama, the line is forming, like, nowhere? Martydom might be a fine thing in the abstract, but I'm guessing that it has much less appeal in the concrete. "Martyrdom operations" are literally self defeating anyway: they consume your own troops at a 100-percent rate and leave no one to come home a hero, where gleamy-eyed potential recruits can gaze gauzily at them, wanting to be one, too. As for the ladies, they sure see no future in marrying a future martyr. ... There is also the important question of why holy jihadist warriors are losing badly to the infidel dogs, making the Arab street (remember it?) probably wonder whether Allah intends to show up for the match anytime soon.

On the other hand, Saudi expatriate Alhamedi profiled a failed Saudi jihadi named Ahmad who went to Iraq and lived through his self-immolation in Iraq. Now Ahmad is in Saudi custrody.

He's now going to appear on TV, supposedly to discourage others. However, for those who are reassured by the fact that suicide bombing is not a hereditary profession, take heed of the fact that Saudi Arabia's unfulfilled womenfolk are fuelling one of the largest birthrates in the world, and there are plenty more where Ahmad came from. Also, and I've no doubt that this opinion will not be universally popular, ten years ago Ahmad and his like would have spent their lives in useless but low-key hedonism, eventually dying a peaceful but definitely lonely death. Iraq has changed all that. For those who believe that invading Iraq has somehow reduced the world's sum total of terrorists, think of Ahmad, and all those who preceded him, and all those who will follow him.

So who is right? The trend on the ground in Iraq is that al Qaeda has almost given up attacking US forces directly because they lose badly every time. They have turned instead to attacking Iraqi Security Forces, which are a softer target. Bit the ISF troops are increasing in number and competence week by week. In fact, the ISF performed very well in rooting al Qaeda out of Tal Afar recently in conjunction with US Army units. This operation has been basically concluded now.

The combined force killed about 150 insurgents and captured roughly 350 more. [US Army Gen. George W. ] Casey said officials estimate this accounted for about 75 percent to 80 percent of the foreign fighters and other insurgents they believed were in the city. "It looked like a pretty tough fight," he said. Strong support from the Iraqi government made the soldiers' mission significantly easier, Casey said. In the days leading up to the military assault, Iraqi government representatives spent time in Tal Afar and brokered an agreement with local leaders from all local ethnic groups: Shiia, Sunni and Turkoman. "The other piece of this that sometimes gets lost is the Iraqi government was very much involved in setting the conditions for success," he said. Casey explained that local sheiks signed statements saying basically: "We've had enough. We ask for the military to come in and clean the terrorists and foreign fighters out of Tal Afar." This led to support for the mission from the city's civilian population. "That had a huge impact on what we had to deal with with respect to the population of that city," Casey said.

Five hundred jihadis killed or captured puts a big dent in al Qaeda's personnel status. As one Army briefer said last week, the quality and skill of the terrorist fighters Iraqi-American troops faced in Tal Afar was very significantly lower than have been heretofore encountered. And a piece of Alhamedi's essay offers an insight into that, too:

Now [bomber] Ahmad is not trained to fire a rocket launcher or a machine gun. That would be a bit beyond him, and anyway, that's reserved for the Iraqi insurgents who are mostly army trained and certainly plan to "fight another day". Why go and kill yourself when hordes of stupid Saudi kids are streaming across the border asking for the privilege? The Iraqi insurgents are not daft. So he learns to drive his oil tanker.

So Alhamedi was right on to call Ahmad "cannon fodder." The apparent low quality of newly-recruited jihadis and the open-battle incapacity of the jihadist fighters led al Qaeda's Iraq "mastermind" (hardly a term to apply to one leading the losing side) Abu Musab al Zarqawi to declare war against Iraqi Shiites, then quickly backtrack when he apparently realized that was a losing proposition in a country that is 80 percent Shia. It didn't really play well across much of the Arab world, either, even among some other Islamists:

Jordan's Sunni Islamists Monday blasted the war against Iraqi Shiites declared by al-Qaida`s chief in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian national. A statement by the Islamic Action Front said, 'We utterly reject the edicts and calls that target part of the Iraqi population because of their sectarian affiliation.' The statement said Zarqawi's call to kill Shiites 'violated all Islamic laws and exceeded the limits of reason and logic and are aimed at harming Iraq and undermining its unity, freedom and independence.' 'Such calls are sheer attempts to partition and divide Iraq and incite destructive strife,' it added. The Jordanian Islamists also urged Iraqis to close ranks, uniting against foreign occupation and opposing attempts to partition Iraq and incite internal strife.

The Iraqis are indeed increasingly closing ranks and "uniting against foreign occupation," except they are comprehending in rapidly increasing numbers that the foreign occupiers are not the Americans, but al Zarqawi and cohort. So now, "After declaring war on Shiites in Iraq last week, al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has issued a new statement stating that 'not all Shiites are our target.'" He now says that certain Shia groups are off the target list:

[A]l-Zarqawi specified that 'all Shiites who condemn the crimes committed against the Sunnis at Tel Afar and who don't support the occupation will be excluded from attacks by the mujahadeen'. Those groups therefore include three Shiite movements: those of al-Sadr, al-Khalisi and al-Hussani."

It needs be noted that these Shias are quite outnumbered by the Shias who "remain targets for al-Qaeda." Al Qaeda in Iraq is unable to launch effective attacks against US or Iraqi forces, which are punishing al Qaeda more and more effectively. (It needs be noted that insurgents in Iraq, whether Baathists or al Qaeda, have never been able to do this.) While many attacks have been deadly, sad to say, they have not been effective. The loss of Tal Afar to al Qaeda and Zarqawi's frantic rhetoric afterward show that he is unable now to mount even a minimally effective defense. So all he can do is what he has been doing in recent days: blow people up, a capability that he still has in spades. But it is the only capability he has. The great majority of his victims have and continue to be Iraqis. It is not a tactic that can win hearts and minds. But al Qaeda has never really be interested in gaining a popular mandate, anyway. Because it cannot give effective battle, it's only resort is to try to incite fighting between Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, Turkomens, heck, anybody who will fight each other. But that's not working, either. Zarqawi is lashing out brutally and bloodily, but he can't hide the fact that al Qaeda in Iraq is steadily being boxed in and losing strength day by day. The otherwise-unemployable, driftless young Saudi men like Alhamedi profiled can't plug the gaps.

Update: I also recommend reading two other essayists' analysis. One is, "Al Queda is Losing It," which points out,

Everything but IED deaths and Bullet deaths have been trending down since May. This directly correlates with the soldiers reports that things have been settling down in Iraq. The bullet deaths are trending upwards, but that reflects the soldiers being more aggressive. IEDs have a slight trend upwards, but that also reflects that the insurgents have become much weaker. About the only thing they can do now is skulk around at night and plant bombs, they're too weak to mount much of a direct effort against the troops. Now look at that last month, September. Its too early to say for sure given that we're halfway through the month, but look at the steep decline. Most of the numbers are zero! This almost seemed too good to be true, so I double checked on the Centcom site. Very few casualty reports.

There's more, including graphical plots. Next up is Belmont Club:

The enemy has probably set out to prove, in the light of the recent one-sided combat, that they can still cause US casualties. The enemy strikes do not appear to be "complex" operations which rely on the combined and coordinated application of different types of attack. In the case of the attack on the diplomatic convoy, the enemy expended a VBIED, which is pretty much their ultimate weapon, against a vehicle which did not contain any targets of a high propaganda value to them, although they must have believed the middle vehicle, which was attacked, may have contained a diplomat probably because of its location in the convoy. The deaths of these Americans are a tragedy. However, there is nothing yet in the operational pattern which suggests that the enemy is able to strike at other than targets of opportunity: they are killing whoever they can. This is pretty much consistent with the strategy of causing a political, rather than an overtly military impact on US forces. ... However, the relatively unsophisticated method of attack when compared to his previous efforts, when he would combine IEDs with mortar fire, snipers and the opportunistic selection of targets suggests that he is operationally hurt. Hurt, but not yet fatally hurt.

Which is why I say that al Qaeda's attacks are not effective. They are tactically and especially strategically impotent. Nonetheless, there are many here who never see a silver lining without wanting to enshroud it in a cloud of "wistful thinking."

Update: Confederate Yankee has more on the subject. Update: Who said this?

There was a time not long ago when Al-Qaeda might have been analyzed or interpreted as a manifestation of Arab discontent, a violent quest for political reform or an aggressive statement against American or Zionist domination. But the most recent operations called for by Al-Qaeda's frontman in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, ought to finally disprove such theories. His declaration of war against Iraqi Shiites illustrates that Al-Qaeda has lost any and every possible claim it may have had to moral, noble or rational objectives. In declaring war against Iraqi Shiites, Al-Qaeda has proven itself to be nothing more than a ruthless, sectarian gang. It is not unlike many other sectarian militias that we have seen in the region; the only difference is that it is much more vicious and has a much wider reach.\

The Daily Star, Lebanon (15 Sept 2005), quoted here.

My address to Gold Star families

I addressed Gold Star Mothers and their families, along with many Blue Star families, at a luncheon honoring fallen U. S. Marines on Sept. 17, 2005. The luncheon was sponsored by Tennessee Marine Families, a chartered not-for-profit organization of which my wife and I are members. Many readers will recognize that I modeled five paragraphs of this address on Pericles' oration at the first funeral of Athens' fallen of the Peloponnesian War in 431 bc. You will also see an echo of Shakespeare's "Henry V" (I cited the full quotation here) in a closing paragraph.

There was a time in our country when families such as ours did not have to form organizations to offer one another moral and material support because a large percentage of Americans served in the military. Almost every extended family had a member in uniform at one time or another and endured separation or loss like we endure. Families of deployed service members were woven throughout the fabric of every town or city and so was a support structure for them. Today the privilege of service belongs to relatively few Americans, all volunteers - except us. Our sons or daughters - we can no longer call them children - volunteered for military service and then we discovered we had been drafted into another, softer service along with them. Softer service, yes, but not easy.

We have seen our sons or daughters or spouses volunteer for war, prepare for war, go to war. We have, most of us, given an embrace that we dared not think may be the last, taken photographs secretly fearing might be final, given and received tearful kisses hoping with all our hearts that they are promises, not really good-byes. And some us sadly have not welcomed our loved ones home and are living with the grief of fears that became fate.

Without reservations the fallen Marines we memorialize today believed in ideals that formed the very soil from which America grew. They held it self-evident that human beings are endowed by our Creator with certain unalienable rights. The fundamental premise on which America was founded was that human freedom is the will of God. Over 230 years of our history this idea has become so deeply rooted in the American psyche that even Americans who profess not to believe in God nonetheless say that freedom is the natural condition of human life. Historian and retired infantry officer T. R. Fehrenbach observed that the virtues required to protect a democracy are often at odds with the virtues of democracy. So while we cherish life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness as just ends of democratic freedom, our Marines put their lives at risk, surrender many personal liberties and submit to rigorous discipline that is often most unhappy.

Why did they do this? The most reasonable thing to do when battle begins is to run away, not stay and fight. Were they truly willing to die for their country? I don't think so. There's an old story that goes back probably to the Civil War of the young soldier whose commander asked him, "Are you willing to die for your country?" The young man answered, "Certainly not. But I am ready to die, unwilling." The American armed forces really have no use for someone who is willing to die. We do not seek and soon weed out anyone seeking martyrdom in battle; this is a key distinction between us and our enemy. We do not send our soldiers, sailors, airmen or Marines to die even though we know some inevitably will. Our country is instead ably protected by those who accept the risk rather than seek it. But why accept it?

What civilians rarely discern but what every veteran knows is that military service, especially in battle, is steeped with the convictions of deepest emotion. In battle there is fear and courage, anger and compassion. There is resignation and determination. There is hope and despair. The chief emotion of the battlefield is an unlikely one. It is love. Across the range of mental, physical and emotional states in the desolation of combat, love abides. Our Marines chose to serve for a variety of reasons, and love of country was a big one. But when enclosed by the mournful mutter of the battlefield, patrolling deserts of Iraq or the mountains of Afghanistan, men at arms stay where flies the angry iron not for country or flag or other abstractions. In the final sense they fight for their friends. One Iraq veteran wrote,

[T]he first casualty of war is innocence. ... I've found the hard way that war is not glamorous. You quickly lose the idea of being a man fighting for his country when you have to carry your comrade who has been wounded in a gun fight. That nobility is lost quickly. ... It's not about fighting for the flag, it's about fighting for my life and fighting for my buddies' lives. These men I am lucky enough to serve with, I have become so attached to it's like they are my brothers.

A Marine major in Iraq wrote of a young corporal, a squad leader, who, during the invasion of Iraq was wounded by a grenade. This Marine refused evacuation and continued to guide his squad until he passed out from loss of blood.

Recovering at a US Army hospital in Germany, he convinced his doctors to release him, "borrowed" a camouflage uniform from a Navy corpsman, called his wife and told her that he wasn’t coming home because his Marines were depending on him, and then talked his way onto an Air Force transport back to Iraq. He had the "golden ticket." He was headed home as a war hero with medals to prove it, but he just couldn’t bear to let his Marines down, so he schemed and connived, as only a good Marine NCO can, and got himself back into the fight. There are those who will call that kind of response foolish. Then may God grant that I be such a fool. You may question the wisdom of that Marine, but he’s the kind of man you want on your side when the chips are down.

Whether they served in peace or war, the Marines we memorialize today were not so impoverished of spirit that they were unable to surrender the pleasures of life. None of them excused themselves from hard service even though a softer lifestyle could have easily been gained. They deemed that their love of country and duty to freedom were of greater value and more important imperative, so they reckoned that if dangers must be faced, they would face them in the most desirable way, by placing their own mortal bodies "between their loved homes and the war's desolation."

They determined at the hazard of their lives to be honorable in their young adulthood, to make sure of their duty, and to leave everything else for later, if later ever came. They gave over to hope their chance of lifelong happiness and the uncertainty of final success, and in mortal danger they relied only upon themselves, their buddies and the Corps itself. They chose to risk death young as free men rather than live long as conquered ones. And when fearful lethality loomed they resolved to resist and suffer, rather than flee to save their lives; they ran away not from danger but from dishonor. On the battlefield they stood steadfast, and in an instant, at the height of their resolve, they passed away from this life but not from our lives or the destinies of generations yet to come.

Such was the end of these men's lives. We need not desire to have a more heroic spirit than they, although we do pray that others and their families suffer no such fate. The value of their spirit is poorly expressed in words. Anyone can speak to you about the advantages of such devotion, but you know about that already. Instead I hope that we can fix our eyes upon the greatness of our country and of these men's love of it and one another, and reflect that this country was established and has been preserved by men and women who knew their duty and determined to do it even at cost of life.

We should make them our examples. Their courage is our freedom and our freedom is our happiness. We whose loved ones still serve must not weigh too hard on the perils of war. We accept their love of country as our assurance and their service as our blessing. So it is comfort rather than pity I have to offer you, the families of the fallen. There are numberless chances to which lives of men and women are subjected: none of us here is promised even to see our own homes again today or ever.

These Marines' service ended in their honorable deaths and your honorable sorrow. Their passing is truly sad, for which you rightly mourn - but their deaths were not tragic, for tragedy is found in futility and selfishness, never by attaining the great honor of selfless service for freedom's sake. I know how hard it is to hear this, for the good fortune of others will too often remind you of the gladness which once lightened your hearts. There is a portal you have passed through that we frankly hope never to cross ourselves. So we honor your grieving and will never forget your sons and husbands.

In gratitude we should offer them praise that does not grow old, and acknowledge they occupy the noblest of all tombs. I speak not of that in which their remains are laid, but of that in which their glory survives and is proclaimed whenever people protect their freedom or are liberated from tyranny. For the whole world is the memorial of these Americans; they signed the earth itself with their blood and their honor. Not only are they commemorated here in their own country, but in Iraq and Afghanistan there are countless, unwritten memorials of them, graven not on stone but in the hearts of tens of millions of peoples newly freed from murderous oppression.

Because of these men's sacrifice we go safely to our homes. Henceforth we should stand in humility when their names are read. Their comrades in arms who see old age will recall them fondly and show their medals and say, "These ribbons I earned beside true heroes." We will forget many things in years to come but we shall remember these great men and what feats they did one day. These dates shall never go by but that in them our fallen shall be remembered. They were a few, a band of brothers; and may we gratefully call them who shed their blood for us our brothers. And people in our country safe in their beds should think themselves accursed they knew them not, and hold their courage cheap when any speaks of men who fought and died for freedom's cause.

The prophet Micah wrote that the time will come when God will judge between all the peoples and will settle disputes between strong nations far and wide. They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore. All people will be at peace, and no one will make them afraid (Micah 4:3-4).

Let us pray that day comes quickly. Until then may the Lord watch over those who serve today, to make them instruments of justice, enablers of peace, and finally to see them safely home. To our Gold Star families, may God bless you and keep you and comfort you, from this day until the ending of the world.
_________________________________

In honor of and gratitude for the service and sacrifice of these Marines:

LCpl. Benjamin Gearheart - Franklin, Tennessee
Cpl. Patrick Nixon - Gallatin, Tennessee
Capt. Brent Morel - Martin, Tennessee
Lance Cpl. Jeremiah Savage - Livingston, Tennessee
Pfc. Daniel McClenney - Shelbyville, Tennessee
Lance Cpl. Timothy Creager - Millington, Tennessee
Lance Cpl. Brad McCormick - Allons, Tennessee
1st Lt. Andrew Stern - Germantown, Tennessee
Lance Cpl. Tyler Cates - Mt. Juliet, Tennessee
Sgt. Christopher Heflin - Paducah, Kentucky
Lance Cpl. Joshua Dickinson - Lafayette, Tennessee
Pfc. Nathan Clemons - Winchester, Tennessee
Sgt. Morgan Strader
2nd Lt. Heinz Ahlmeyer
Added Oct. 2006: Lance Cpl. Richard A. Buerstetta, Franklin, Tennessee

They will not grow old as we that are left grow old. Age shall not weary them nor the year condemn. At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.
From, "For the Fallen," Laurence Binyon, 1914

To war: Lance Cpl. Stephen Sensing

The future’s fortunes are opaque; we see now as through a glass darkly, and so live each day with fear, faith and hope.

Yesterday my eldest son, Lance Cpl. Stephen Sensing, deployed with his unit to Iraq. His mother, brother, sister and I traveled to Camp Lejeune, NC, to see him off. Cathy’s dad, from Durham, went with us also.

He was released Monday at 10 a.m. until noon Tuesday, so we had a very good visit with him. Then he and his unit drew weapons and gathered their sea bags at the barracks to await transportation. The time of departure slipped a couple of times, but not by much. They shipped out to Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, NC, on commercial buses about 30 minutes later than the originally scheduled time.

At MCAS CP they flew by chartered commercial air to Kuwait; I don’t know the route. Just as I was typing the last paragraph, Stephen called from Kuwait to report he arrived fine and there were no problems. He couldn’t talk but a moment, so that’s all the news we got, but it was wonderful to hear his voice and know all was well. He did say he doesn’t know just when they’ll move into Iraq. He does know where they will go, but I’m not going to include that here.

The standard-issue M16A4 rifle. It’s heavier and more rugged than the M16A1 I carried as a young artillery officer. Seeing this picture I am reminded somehow that when our kids were small, I never let them play with toy guns even though I taught them how to shoot the real things. Guns are not playthings but are deadly serious. There’s no doubt that Stephen knows that now.

They wear their name tapes everywhere – back of their covers, above their right breast pocket, above their right rear trouser pocket, on the sling of their rifles, on their seabags and day packs. They lace a dogtag into a bootlace, standard practice at least since World War II. The other two remain around their necks.

There were many “last” embraces, but there was one that you make count and you give it before you know it’s time to watch him run to final roll call. It’s so hard to let go; you want to make time stand still. You barely breathe and try to feel his heartbeat in your own breast because his heart will always beat in yours.

Steve’s grandfather, Col. (ret.) George D. Stephens, USA, is a World War II veteran who made eight combat amphibious assaults in the Pacific. Since those days he’s always had great respect for US Marines.

Final formation. Frederick the Great observed, “Ninety percent of a soldier’s time is spent waiting for something to happen.” So also with Marines! But the wait wasn’t long.

The battalion commander, Lt. Col. Michael L. Kuhn, came by to talk to the company and wish them well. He also read a prayer by the chaplain – why the chaplain didn’t come himself I don’t know (for all I know the battalion chaplain might already be deployed with another element, so I judge not harshly). Lt. Col. Kuhn’s talk was brief, to the point and professional – these Marines need no pumping up. Many of them have fought in Iraq before; in fact, every one of the NCOs in Stephen’s chain of command I met were already combat veterans, which reassured me greatly.

Lt. Col. Kuhn kindly dropped by our little family group after his short talk to the troops. Several families came to see their Marine off and I am pretty sure that the battalion commander spoke to every one. We had a good conversation for quite awhile. I told him what I had told my son the night before, that I was deeply envious of my son and his fellow Marines. Some people reach the end of their lives still wondering whether they ever made a positive difference in their country or the world. Marines don’t have that problem, and neither, of course, do soldiers, sailors, airmen or Coast Guardsmen.

My son and his fellows are producers of freedom, not mere consumers of it. And those who only consumed freedom will one night lie in their beds and think themselves accursed that they didn’t serve with them.

This is a repost from donaldsensing.com, the original of which  is no longer on that site. However, it is still available, with 130-plus comments, on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine, here.