In the latest audiotape made by Osama bin Laden, the al Qaeda chief vowed to take its terrorism to Israel.
Osama bin Laden vowed to destroy Israel.
The fugitive Al-Qaida leader issued an audio recording Saturday in which he came out against Palestinian and other Arab leaders who have recognized the Jewish state.
"I would like to assure our people in Palestine that we will expand our jihad there," Bin Laden said. "We intend to liberate Palestine, the whole of Palestine, from the river to the sea."
"We will not recognize even one inch for Jews in the land of Palestine as other Muslim leaders have," he said.
Al-Qaida is believed to have set up cells in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, but its influence is limited given doctrinal opposition from ruling local groups like Islamist Hamas.
In his message, Bin Laden also mocked Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, over the fact that the U.N. peacekeeper presence has grown in southern Lebanon since last year's war with Israel. The peacekeepers, Bin Laden said, "protect the Jews."
This declaration is less a statement of actual intention than an attempt to rally the Muslim world appearing sympathetic with the one cause that inflames passions across Islamia - the Palestinian-Israel issue.
But I think that few Muslims will fall for bin Laden's latest attempt to play the Pally card. He's tried it before, and it just fell flat. Osama has never had the rep as a Palestinian advocate. Even Yasser Arafat ran away from bin Laden when the latter attempted to connect al Qaeda's cause with the Pallys'. Bin Laden has very little standing as champion of the Palestinians.
Furthermore, it's fairly transparent that bin Laden's tape is focused primarily on his rapidly diminishing prospects in Iraq. In the same tape, bin Laden warns the Iraqis not to join Iraq's unity govermment and says the Sunnis "have betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people."
Sunni Iraqis have been turning against al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in increasing numbers
at least since 2005, resulting in accelerating losses to AQI through capture and death. Sunni areas, especially the Anbar province, were until last year the safest havens in Iraq for the predominantly-foreign al Qaeda fighters. But al Qaeda's indiscriminate killing of those who opposed its radical Islamism, including the murder of Sunni sheiks and the beheading of Sunni children, guaranteed that Sunni tribes would renounce their alliance with al Qaeda. Now, very few Sunni tribes remain friendly to al Qaeda in Iraq, and most of those who broke with AQI actively oppose it. Last August, Michael Totten reported in the
NY Daily News:
I spent a week in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, which just four months ago was the most violent place in Iraq. Al Qaeda had taken over and ruled the city through a massive murder and intimidation campaign. Even the Marine Corps, arguably the least defeatist institution in America, wrote off Ramadi as irretrievably lost last August.
Then, local tribal leaders and civilians joined the Americans - and helped purge the city of every last terrorist cell. Violence has dropped to near zero. I have photographs of Iraqis hugging American soldiers and of children greeting us with ecstatic joy, as though they had been rescued from Nazis. The Marines are even considering going on patrols without body armor.
In fact, al Qaeda passed a "grim milestone" late this month: the 20,000th insurgent died in Iraq. Furthermore, most AQI losses have for several months been inflicted by Sunni militias who were formerly allied with AQI. The "Army of Islam" and the "1920 Revolutionary Brigades," both Sunni militias, are credited with killing more than 5,000 al Qaeda terrorists in just the last two months. Iraq's interior ministry
announced today that over the last year, "75 percent of Al-Qaeda's networks in the country had been destroyed in 12 months." Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf also said that, "Sunni-US alliances against Al-Qaeda had also significantly contributed to the drop in violence" across the country.
In fact, last month the Sunni Islamic Army militia asked American forces to stay away from its planned
ambush of AQI fighters, which resulted in 18 AQI KIA and 16 captured.
Michael Yon, who has spent more time in Iraq than any other reporter (the bulk of it on combat patrols), just posted a "
News flash for Osama bin Laden" in response to bin Laden's audiotape:
I have directly observed how more and more Iraqis have grown to hate al Qaeda as much as Americans do. Al Qaeda has lost all credibility there, both from a religious standpoint as well as strategically. ...
Al Qaeda terrorists can continue to murder Iraqis and Americans at the behest of Osama, but their tactics will only backfire. Osama will no more own Iraq than he will own America. His is a lost cause. Not because of decisive military defeats, (although these have helped) but because decent Iraqi people from all quarters, sects and regions of Iraq have had enough of his people cutting off heads of children.
It’s understandable that this turn of events might come as news to Osama, because he cannot set foot in Iraq for fear of his life.
I wrote last month that AQI first started
losing the logistics war in Iraq and then began just
plain losing the war. Unable to prevail in Iraq, where it enjoyed enormous advantages at the outset, does al Qaeda give Israel any reason to fear? I say no, although it may succeed in a handful of attacks. If it was all that easy to defeat Israel, Hamas, Fatah and Hezbollah would already have done so. Even the violence of Second Intifada (which has not actually ended) did not bring Israel to its knees but resulted in very strict security measures to keep hostiles out of Israel.
Don't expect hardline Hamas to ally itself with bin Laden, either. While Hamas is virulently anti-Israel, it is even more pro-Hamas. That is, Hamas seeks to destroy Israel but not at the expense of adulterating its own character or sharing the triumph with anyone else, al Qaeda included. Further, al Qaeda doesn't have a winner's rep among Palestinians. Al Qaeda has been battered in Afghanistan, where the Taliban carry the bulk of anti-coalition combat, and is clearly losing in Iraq. There is nowhere of consequence in the world where al Qaeda can claim victory.
Fatah is as equally devoted to
Israel's vanquishment as Hamas, differing only in tactics. While radical Islamism in both the West Bank (Fatah/Palestinian Authority) and Gaza (Hamas) is making some gains, Islam in both lands has long been subordinated to to the political end of destroying (Hamas) or ending (Fatah) Israel as a viable Jewish state. Al Qaeda must have a widespread base of support in both places to operate effectively against Israel. But the Pallys know what Israel is
capable of doing to protect itself, and do not doubt Israel's will. They are unlikely to ally themselves with al Qaeda. It would be an act of suicide.
Of greater concern to Israel, though, is the rising of Islamism in the Arab countries. In my October visit to Israel's foreign ministry, my study group met with Daniel Taub, deputy legal advisor for counterterrorism, international law, negotiations and humanitarian affairs. He said that many Arab governments are much more moderate regarding Israel, and the Israel-Palestinian issue, than their people are. Israel, he said, is very concerned about the rise of Islamism in Arab clountries, especially in Egypt and Jordan. (Egypt borders Gaza and Jordan borders the West Bank.)
Yet even an increasing sympathy among the
ummah with Islamist ideology does not necessarily translate into embracing al Qaeda. There are other flavors of Islamism than al Qaeda's. Saudi clerics are the most respected among Muslims because they are seen as keepers of the Two Holy Mosques of Mecca and Medina. The Salafi Islam they promote is only barely less strict than Talibanism, but they have issued
fatwas against al Qaeda.
Bin Laden's greatest weakness is in fact his weakness. Al Qaeda is losing worldwide, not just in Iraq. Bin Laden has a history of boasts of coming calamity for America that have never even been attempted. He has no more credibility now, promising al Qaeda will destroy Israel, than Miami Dolphins' head coach Cam Cameron would have if he promised to win the Super Bowl next month. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.
Years ago, bin Laden
called America a "weak horse" and al Qaeda the strong horse. In 2003, his top commander, Abu Salma Al-Hijazi, said that "a huge and very courageous strike" would take place by Ramadan and that more than 100,000 infidels would be killed. Do you remember that attack? Neither do I.
And more importantly, neither do the Palestinians or the rest of the Arab world. Al Qaeda is the weak horse, and the Arabs know it. Israel need not fear bin Laden's bluster.