Well, summer's here and the time is right--but, in this part of the world that means seriously hot times. Despite the relative calm in the last several weeks, by the end of last week, Israelis were taking a long hard view eastward to Iran. Over there, work continues unfettered on a nuclear weapon that most Israelis believe will be completed and will be used on Tel Aviv.
When Iranians say they intend to use their weapon to eradicate Israel, Israelis believe them. There is no room for error here--as in a "they would never do that" policy.
By the end of last week, Israelis were talking about the lastest lull in hostilities with Hamastan (time to increase arms for a possible chance to redeem captives), about the increased weapons practice in the Golan, and the incredibly open airshows all over the north--airborne refueling exercises and "heads-up" levels. There was even one exercise where large numbers of IAF jets scrambled to sea towards Cyprus.
At the end of this Shabbat, the conversation turned to Iran and the inevitability of war. Any chance of Iran's promise of using a Bomb, or a dirty bomb, is clearly unacceptable--the only question is when will action be taken and the size of the retaliation. There is some talk that Iran will respond with conventional weapons on Israel's nuclear facility in the Negev but no here takes that seriously--given the total lack of accuracy in the last war on land targets at any range, and that there are no large urban grey areas on the AAA road map, Iran's only hope is a large urban target. If they undershoot their target, they'll risk a Jordanian or Syrian hit.
More to the point, the real question now is how active a role the US will take in the action. Over Shabbat, DEBKA reports that the situation increased in complexity.
The visiting Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, carried out a guided tour of Israel’s borders with Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip over the weekend. It was led by the IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and OCs Northern and Southern Commands, Maj. Gens. Eisenkott and Galant.In the style of the best Stationary Bandits, the Iranian president and friends continue their threats knowing full well that the rest of the world will free ride on Israel's actions. Before Shabbat, Iranian military leaders claimed they would also block the sea lanes in and out of the Persian Gulf thereby driving up the cost of oil.
He was briefed on IDF tactics in a war on all these potential flashpoints in the context of a comprehensive conflict with Iran and then held long conversations with defense minister Ehud Barak and Ashkenazi.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that it is very unusual for the top American commander to carry out a close, on-the-spot study of Israel’s potential war fronts. It was prompted on the one hand by skepticism in parts of the US high command of Israel’s ability to simultaneously strike Iran’s nuclear installations and fight off attacks from three borders while, at the same time, Adm. Mullen showed he was open to persuasion that the IDF’s prospective tactics and war plans were workable.
Military circles in Washington, commenting on the large-scale air maneuver Israel carried out with Greece earlier in June, have opined that 100 warplanes are not enough for the Israel Air Force to destroy all of Iran’s secret nuclear sites; more than 1,000 would be needed. Israel military tacticians in contact with US commanders have countered that, while Iran’s secret nuclear locations are scattered and buried deep, still, every chain has weak links and is therefore vulnerable.
The tough threats issued by Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Mohamed Ali Jafari on Saturday, June 28, were prompted by the Adm. Mullen’s Israeli border tour, word of which was flashed to Tehran by Syrian-Iranian observation posts inside Syrian and Lebanese borders.
(The Sunday Times added that Iran moved its ballistic Shihab-3 missiles into launch positions, with Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant among its possible targets.)
You gotta love these guys. They hit one Israeli destroyer off the coast of Tyre in 2006 and they're ready to take on the US Navy. Like they're really going to cut off their only source of revenue? On the other hand, this is a tactic that is worthy of the secret leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard--The Black Knight.
And why do Israelis think something is really in the works? Because the ONLY miracle Olmert has to survive and surf again (if only as community cat catcher) is to pull this off before the September 25 Kadima primary.
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Is the prevailing wisdom in Israel then that this will happen, and it will happen prior to the end of September?
I've heard lots of rumors that Israel and/or the U.S. will strike Iran following the November elections, but prior to Bush leaving office. I'd put more credence in that if Obama is elected, but I'm just not at all certain that the U.S. has the gumption or political will to force the Iranian issue in this manner. Bush may have just enough cowboy left in him to try, as his last act as President, but I'd not wager on that.
I also can't help but think that any attacks on Iran pre-November will push the elections in the U.S. to Obama. A case can be made that the opposite would happen as well, but my gut feeling is that rocking the boat at this juncture will not be pleasing to the voters here.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 06/30/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
Certainly, the Iranians are gambling the "Spanish Gambit" will prevent the US from acting before their elections to avoid an Obama win. The problem is the Israeli democratic process. If Olmert is defeated in his parties primary in September, the Kadima government is finished and Netanyahu moves to center front. With the new referendum law in place, Netanyahu coming into power, and the increasing arms build up in the Iranian client states, the pressure to act is sooner rather than later.
In fact, the real issue is the perceived threat of Iranian nuclear capacity. The longer the wait, the greater the certainty. Moreover, this perception threatens not only Israel, but the entire balance of power in the region. Important as they are, the US election is NOT a factor at this moment. The Kadima primary is--if Olmert washes out, the liberal tendency to appease and accomodate is checked.
For this reason, the win-win scenerio is early September, like last year's strike on the Syrian nuclear facility. That way, Olmert looks strong, the action looks Israeli, Bush gets to clean things up (any peace in a storm), and the Navy gets to clobber any Iranian attempts to shut down the Gulf.
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