It takes 24 GPS satellites orbiting the earth to maintain the accuracy of the system at its present level. But the chances of the Air Force being able to maintain 24 operational satellites starts to drop next year, and lessens with each passing year.
According to a report released by the Government Accountability Office in April, the Air Force ran into problems with being able to build GPS satellites under budget and on schedule. For example, three years late from its original launch date, the next GPS satellite will be launched into orbit in November 2009.As things are going now, the chance that there will be 24 operational satellites in orbit in 2017 is about 10 percent.
With the hardware currently being used in space, the replacing and maintaining of satellites is crucial, especially since the current hardware we're using has been in orbit for almost two decades. If maintenance is not kept up, then GPS accuracy will begin to drop more and more each year.
Which means we'll be back to this:
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If you read some of the follow-up articles which don't mindlessly parrot the GAO report, you'll find there are 33 satellites in orbit now, which means we would have to lost 8 (c. 25%) before we would see actual degradation.
In other words, the claim that "that the probability of keeping a 24-satellite constellation in orbit drops below 95 percent in 2010" is facially absurd, unless Gizmodo can explain how we will lose 8 satellites in the next 12 months.
At least one analyst (sorry, didn't bookmark the article) says that this is an example of the GAO playing politics by trying to make the Air Force look bad in public, since they have fallen behind in the process of launching replacement satellites.
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