Debka.com tonight is carrying the following post Shabbat cheer.
DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that their host is fired up to be the first US president in decades of close friendship and cooperation to clash openly with Israel and the bulk of US Jewry. Oblivious to Israel's claim of US support for its security in a hostile regional environment, Barack Obama is expected to squeeze the Netanyahu government hard for immediate engagement on the Middle East conflict without further delay.
According to our sources, the White House staff is working at top speed on options for imposing its will.
Peres and Netanyahu will be informed that Washington is setting up two trilateral peace commissions to hammer out peace accords between Israel and the Palestinians and Israel with the Syrians.
What will the BO plan look like?
It starts out with pressure on Israel to freeze settlement activity on the West Bank and construction in East Jerusalem. At a later stage, Israel would be pushed to abandon large sections of the West Bank, remove authorized communities as well as unauthorized outposts and hand over the historic nucleus of Jerusalem.
Finally, the Israeli government would be required to accept an independent Palestinian state, even if its government is dominated by the rejectionist terrorist group Hamas.
Peres and Netanyahu will find administration officials deaf not only on Israel's arguments on the Palestinian issue but on a nuclear-armed Iran too. They will see the US president no longer prioritizing the suspension of Iran's nuclear aspirations, but bent on establishing a new Persian Gulf order that formalizes Iran's rising power. Washington's objective now is negotiations for setting the boundaries of Iran's Middle East expansion and limits for its nuclear program.
Israel will have no say in this process. In fact, by elevating Iran to premier regional power, America is sidelining its longstanding friends, Israel and Egypt, and setting aside their security and strategic interests for the sake of deals with Iran.
Dennis Ross, US envoy for Iran, carried this message to the capitals of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, last week.
It is interesting to note that two of the "big three" in the current Israeli government, Netanyahu and Barak, are veterans of the former Clinton era failed peace accords. They are not likely to go willingly, especially since the mandate of the Israeli electorate in the last election clearly signaled the total lack of trust in the current Oslo-road-map derivatives.
The third key member of the big three is Lieberman--Mr. Surprise. Already forging new ground with Egypt, the other loser to the BO Iranian Surrender, the Foreign Minister's current success might be surprising to Americans but not to Israel's neighbors. Lieberman is neither American nor European. He is Russian with all that entails.
Over here, in this part of the world, that says volumes. For one thing, Russians, being more Asiatic than European, understand how the Shuk works. Russians are known to tell you where they stand on prices and their true initial bargaining position. Israel's neighbors find that very refreshing. Instead of vague nuanced talk, Russians are known for their negotiating bluntness. For years, liberals have dawdled and dallied around where they hold as the starting point in negotiations. Lieberman is quite plain.
All of this is quite interesting with respect to BO, person of the volk. It would appear that the man who wishes to be the FD Roosevelt on domestic policies, wants to be the T Roosevelt around the world's other canal of note.
Oh well. Maybe BO is learning from the Russians. It will be nice when the canard that the Jews are to blame for ALL the ills of the Middle East is finally in the open.
So much for Never Again.
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5 comments:
This sounds just like the Munich Conference of 1938, where Hitler, Chamberlain and Deladier decided the fate of Czechoslovakia without consulting Czechoslovakia. They just informed Czechoslovakia how things were going to be, leading Churchill to observe, "They had to choose between dishonor and war. They chose dishonor. They will have war."
Achmadinejad, Obama and Abbas (oops, I mean Hamas) are positioning themselves to dictate terms to Israel. Obama can choose between dishonor and war. He will choose dishonor, but it is Israel who will have war.
I am really worried for you, my friend!
With apologies to Santayana; "Those who CAN remember the past are condemned to live among idiots repeating it." --Steve Setzer
I fear for our good friend Israel, but no more than I fear for us.
My own notion is that Obama will try to indirectly influence (probably not subtley, either) the internal politics of Israel to promote a democratic change of government that will embrace his plan(s).
Netanyahu is nothing if not anathema to the politicians presently in the US Executive branch.
It will be instructive to see how far the Obama Administration is willing to go and how they will package their approach to the American people, and how people will react.
Dishonor AND war; what an appetizing combination. That's change you can hope for.
-David
If this turns out to be true, will the 70% or so of American Jews who voted for BO have any regrets? We in the American electorate are getting exactly who we (collectively) voted for. Unfortunately, Israel may pay a heavy price for our lurch to the left.
I hope DEBKA is wrong on this, but the scenario presented does seems plausible. The US administration must be frantic to come up with some positive news for the Muslim world after deciding to continue fighting the Taliban in both Afghanistan and, more importantly, Pakistan. We'll see.
Bibi is in a tough position, indeed. His coalition was elected wtih a clear majority/mandate to "just say no". Likud was not the largest winner--Kadima was. So, he finally was re-elected but with a clear right of center mandate--he cannot get cozy with the US and Israeli liberals without losing his job. Lieberman really will keep him honest.
As for Obama, from this side of the pond, there will be war no matter what as long as Iran and Syria rock and roll without restraint. The general perception in Israel is that Obama has little if any conception on which way the wind is blowing (it would seem his Weatherman is clueless). Certainly, he cannot be expected to draw the line with Iran and Iran can be trusted to do what it says it will do.
As for Israelis, they do not need a Cromwell to put their faith in God AND keep their powder dry. There are deep shelters and lots of supplies. When the government starts distributing the gasmasks, you will know the time is at hand.
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