Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Obama Obliteration

By Donald Sensing

Will Obama obliterate Romney or vice versa? Yesterday, I posted my high and low estimates of the electoral count, with the high estimate showing Romney at 322 electoral votes and the low at 274.

CNBC host Jim Cramer, however, says that Obama Is Going To Obliterate Romney In A Historic Landslide. Cramer says that Obama will win 55 percent of the popular vote and blow Romney out of the water with 440 to 98 electoral votes.

BI reports,

We were wondering what a 440 to 96 [sic-they mean 98] map would even look like. 
National Journal's Jim Tankersely came up with one using CNN's interactive map.


Note that this is not Cramer's own state by state map; it is BI's map of what the state map would probably  look like on Nov. 7 if Obama is to win by Cramer's margin. There are not a lot of other ways to color the states to wind up with exactly a 440-98 count, maybe no other way (I haven't tried). But seriously: does anyone really think that Obama will win Texas? Here are the main problems with Cramer's prediction:

Charlie Martin wrote on Nov. 2:
In a story today titled “Obama’s Defectors,” the WaPo looks at a long series of their polls. Rather than averaging them — I just drove a bunch of people screaming from the room by showing a proof of the problems of averaging, so I promise I won’t, but believe me, it sucks — they looked at a long series of polls of various different subpopulations. In each case they asked people who had voted for Obama if they were going to again. In every case, there was a fair proportion of “defectors.”
Overall, “[t]wo weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.” Now, from the standpoint of the Republican Party, whether they vote for Romney or for Mickey Mouse, they reduce Obama’s vote. Now, here’s a little bit of math for you: Obama got about 53 percent of the vote in 2008. Obama is only getting 84 percent of those votes this time.
84 percent of 53 percent is 45 percent.
Cramer thinks that Obama will get 55 percent of the popular vote? That's a greater margin than four years ago! Not a chance.

All over the country, wherever Romney goes, he draws enormous crowds, such as in Denver yesterday, where 18,000 filled an amphitheater to overflowing. Or 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio.

Obama's draw? Two links:
In my own projection map last night, I painted Colorado and Iowa blue. Actually, I think they both probably will turn red come Tuesday, and think that one of them definitely will. (All four major papers in Iowa have endorsed Romney and The Des Moines Register shows Romney up by five points in the state.)

So Cramer is right - it could well be an obliteration, but not the way he called it. I can foresee Romney getting not the 322 electoral votes of my high estimate, but as many as 337.

We will see.

Update: The Amazon Electoral Heat Map is almost all shaded red, FWIW.


Update: Now Cramer says the joke's on you!

Update: Speaking of obliterations:



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