Tuesday, January 22, 2013

America's coming oil independence? Not so fast

By Donald Sensing

Dueling charts:

9 Charts That Show Why People Have Begun To Whisper About 'Saudi America'

The basic gist: Thanks to oil from shale, production is growing like bonkers, and it will overwhelm the infrastructure, leading to huge gluts and collapsing prices.

There's a new phrase being bandied about and that's "Saudi America."
But not so fast: Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom
Arthur Berman, an oil analyst with Labyrinth Consulting Services, says the promise of America's shale reserves have been vastly overstated.

His main argument: shale is too expensive to drill, and shale wells usually don't last longer than a couple of years.
Shale oil requires constant, costly drilling and each well's production declines rapidly, like so:


There are a lot of other economic issues with shale oil recovery, too. I personally lean toward the latter point of view, myself, although we have not yet run into the economic wall with shale yet.

BTW, the outlook for "green" energy is even grimmer.

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