Instapundit » Blog Archive » NOBODY SAID SHE WAS STUPID: Foreign Policy: Hillary Clinton staying as far away from Charlotte as …:
One of Glenn's readers is skeptical of reports that SecState Hillary Clinton will be visiting the Cook Islands and other distant locales during the DNC next week. The reader writes that Hillary will surreptitiously make her way to Charlotte to - surprise! - be presented as Obama's new running mate for November.
Not a chance.
There was a lot of talk about Hillary displacing Biden on the ticket as long ago as 2010, especially after the 2010 midterm-election shellacking the Dems took. I even made up a post category called HillaryBuzz. But Hillary insisted throughout the buzz, most of which came from other Democrats, that she was not interested in the veep slot and that such talk was without substance.
I said at the time that instead of accepting second fiddle to Obama on the 2012 ticket, she was more likely to challenge him in the 2012 primaries, a position echoed by a number of prominent Democrat politicians and operatives. But I also said her window to depart the administration was very small, basically between the 2010 mid-terms and 2011's New Year.
It didn't happen. Today, for all the rumor mongering that Valerie Jarrett and others have sent feelers to Hillary about the veep slot, rumors they merely are.
Barack Obama will never permit anyone to occupy the ticket with him whose intellect is at peer level or better. And get real: Hillary Clinton's intellect is leagues beyond Obama's. He knows it and more importantly, she knows it, too. Obama is not about to take a chance on being overshadowed by Ms. Clinton, who absolutely would exploit the chance to do so if Obama won another term.
Moreover, despite her protestations that the SecState office is her final office of public service, few people who breathe Democrat politics think that she is not highly interested in the 2016 race. Being the junior partner of a failed reelection ticket in 2012 would be potentially lethal for her in 2016.
The SecState office is one of only two cabinet positions that is traditionally non-political in performance. Historically, only the SecState and the SecDef do not go on the campaign stump for an incumbent's campaign. This is excellent cover for Hillary for 2016 and she is not about to blow it if she is leaving 2016 open in her own mind.
However, it is far from as certain as talking heads say that Hillary really is interested in seeking the Oval Office in 2016. She is notorious for playing her cards very closely, of course, but all successful politicians do. As I wrote in September 2010, speculating on the talk of her challenging Obama this year,
2012 is, effectively, Hillary's last chance [for the White House]. In 2016 she'll turn 69 just before election day. Only Ronald Reagan has been elected at that age level; Hillary surely recalls that Bob Dole and John McCain, each with extensive government experience and both bona fide war heroes and only a little older, were rejected by the electorate.So my prediction:
1. No Hillary veep slot.
2. If Obama wins in November, Hillary will resign the office of SecState and return to private life. (She has already said she would, so this is not exactly a prediction.)
3. Democrat operatives will push her hard to run in 2016, but she won't.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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