Way back in the last millennium when I wrote or helped write operations plans for the US Army, I always remembered a catch phrase we planners had used for a long time: "The enemy gets a vote."
Which is to say that when we acted, the enemy reacted and almost immediately the plan's assumptions would be negated. That's why we also said, "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy." Dwight D. Eisenhower put it this way: "Planning is absolutely essential, but plans are useless."
And so we come to this administration trying to manage the world's oil supply. Bureaucrats' plans bear all the hallmarks of "static analysis," when planners assume there is only one variable and that they can control it, and nothing else changes and the result is always unicorns and rainbows. This is, ahem, especially true under Democrat administrations, and nowhere more in evidence than the current administration's energy policy, headed by a publicly inept Secretary of Energy who admitted on camera that she has no idea how much oil the United States uses per day.
She also said that the Biden administration cannot do anything to bring oil prices down because oil prices are "controlled" by OPEC.
But don't worry because President Biden has announced that OPEC should increase production and that he is ordering 50 million barrels of oil to be released from the US Strategic Oil Reserves (SPR). That'll show 'em!
The U.S. Department of Energy will make available releases of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in two ways:32 million barrels will be an exchange over the next several months, releasing oil that will eventually return to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the years ahead. The exchange is a tool matched to today’s specific economic environment, where markets expect future oil prices to be lower than they are today, and helps provide relief to Americans immediately and bridge to that period of expected lower oil prices. The exchange also automatically provides for re-stocking of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over time to meet future needs.18 million barrels will be an acceleration into the next several months of a sale of oil that Congress had previously authorized.
That final graf means that 36 percent of the oil released will be sold to other countries, including China. The 32 million barrels released to US oil companies will take place " over the next several months." Last year, the US used just more than 18 million barrels of oil per day, but that was in a year of low economic activity. This year's figures have not been published but are certain to be significantly higher.
But using only 2020's consumption, what the White House announced is that over the next several MONTHs the administration will add a grand total of 1-2/3 days of oil to the American market. Wow!
But wait! There's more! I gotcher proof that static analysis is useless rat cheer! OPEC decided it gets a vote! Hey, where did they get that idea?
The administration said that it would release 32M barrels to the US economy over time, expecting it to drive down oil prices, then purchase 32M barrels for the SPR at lower prices than today's. (India and Japan also said they would release oil from their national reserves.)
So OPEC plus Russia basically said, "Lower prices later? Nope, not a chance. We will simply cut production by at least an equal amount that you are releasing."
Who could not have seen this coming? Only this White House and its Secretary of Energy.
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