2008 hurricane prediction: so what?

Headlines:

Colo. researchers predict 8 Atlantic hurricanes, 4 major

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - A noted hurricane researcher is predicting eight
hurricanes will form in the Atlantic this year, and says four of them will be major.

Tuesday's forecast by William Gray and his team of researchers at Colorado
State University calls for a very active season, with 15 named storms, including tropical storm Arthur, which formed on May 31.

Gray, a former Colorado State University climatologist, pioneered the seasonal predictions in 1984. His team's revised outlook called for the same number of hurricanes as their April forecast.

Then again, no one really seems to care what Gray & Co. predict: Hurricane season outlooks of little use.

It's a lot like Groundhog Day — and the results are worth just about as much.

"The hairs on the back of my neck don't stand up," ho-hums Craig Fugate, director of emergency management for Florida, the state that got raked by four hurricanes — three of them "major" — in 2004. When it comes to preparing, he says, these long-range forecasts "are not useful at all."

The AP contacted the emergency management agency in every coastal state from Texas to Maine and asked whether these seasonal forecasts play any role in their preparations for the hurricane season. Their response was unanimous: They're a great way to get people thinking about the upcoming season, but that's about it.