Showing posts with label Military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Military. Show all posts

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Unrelated videos day!

By Donald Sensing

Three videos that have nothing to do with one another. First up, David Goldman. I have linked to David Goldman's work many times. He is a genuine China expert. This video is his July 17 online lecture for the Westminster Institute about his new book, "You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-Form the World."

David is an American economist, music critic, and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler. He is the Wax Family Fellow at the Middle East Forum, a Senior Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research, and a member of the Board of Advisors of Sino-Israel Government Network and Academic Leadership (SIGNAL). According to the Claremont Review of Books, the “Spengler” columns in the Asia Times have attracted readership in the millions.
Next, that which needs no introduction:

?

And one more:



Bookmark and Share

Sunday, May 24, 2020

An Armed Forces Hymn for Memorial Day

By Donald Sensing



Bookmark and Share

Friday, January 10, 2020

Bombs away! The Obama years

By Donald Sensing

Map shows where President Barack Obama dropped his 20,000 bombs --outgoing US leader carries out 3,000 more strikes in 2016 than year before

And as the world gears up for a seemingly more violent four years, it is worth reflecting on President Obama's tenure.

According to newly released figures, President Obama had already upped the number of bombs on foreign countries.

US forces dropped over 3,000 more bombs in 2016 than 2015, taking the grand total of strikes for the year to at least 26,171.

This map by Statista shows you where they were:


Vast majority of strikes carried out in Iraq and Syria

The figures are likely to be an underestimate, since the only reliable data only comes from a handful of countries, and multiple bombs can be classed as a single “strike” under the Pentagon's definition.

Thursday, December 26, 2019

We are willingly being spied on

By Donald Sensing

Read 'em and weep:

"How Your Phone Betrays Democracy"

A trove of location data with more than 50 billion location pings from the phones of more than 12 million Americans obtained by Times Opinion helps to illustrate the risks that such comprehensive monitoring poses to the right of Americans to assemble and participate in a healthy democracy.
 

Within minutes, with no special training and a little bit of Google searching, Times Opinion was able to single out and identify individuals at public demonstrations large and small from coast to coast.

By tracking specific devices, we followed demonstrators from the 2017 Women’s March back to their homes. We were able to identify individuals at the 2017 Inauguration Day Black Bloc protests. It was easy to follow them to their workplaces. In some instances — for example, a February clash between antifascists and far-right supporters of Milo Yiannopolous in Berkeley, Calif. — it took little effort to identify the homes of protesters and then their family members.
Of course, there are people who do this full time - and they sell our identities and location data to anyone who will pay.

Now even the FBI is warning about your smart TV's security
“Beyond the risk that your TV manufacturer and app developers may be listening and watching you, that television can also be a gateway for hackers to come into your home. A bad cyber actor may not be able to access your locked-down computer directly, but it is possible that your unsecured TV can give him or her an easy way in the backdoor through your router,” wrote the FBI.

The FBI warned that hackers can take control of your unsecured smart TV and in worst cases, take control of the camera and microphone to watch and listen in. ...
 The FBI recommends placing black tape over an unused smart TV camera, keeping your smart TV up-to-date with the latest patches and fixes, and to read the privacy policy to better understand what your smart TV is capable of.
At least use a different router for all connected devices than the one to your computers and tablets and phones.

Pentagon warns US military not to use home DNA testing kits
Companies such as 23andMe and Ancestry allow people to get a breakdown of their genetic makeup and geographic heritage, from providing a saliva sample. Ancestry boasts some 15 million users, while 23andMe says it has 10 million.

But a department of defence memo, obtained by Yahoo News, warned that the kits could put members of the military at risk.

“Exposing sensitive genetic information to outside parties poses personal and operational risks to Service members,” wrote Joseph D. Kernan, the undersecretary of defence for intelligence, and James N. Stewart, the assistant secretary of defence for manpower. ...
 
“There is increased concern in the scientific community that outside parties are exploiting the use of genetic data for questionable purposes, including mass surveillance and the ability to track individuals without their authorization or awareness.”

The memo reflects a wider concern about biometrics like DNA, fingerprints and facial recognition.
The DNA-testing companies are extremely inaccurate in their testing anyway. I remember reading of a journal that sent samples from several individuals to three different home-DNA testing companies and got back very different reports on each person. Then there was the example of the Dahm identical triplets whose samples also varied significantly. As Science News reports, "Results can vary widely depending on which company you use."

And when you sign the forms to send the sample back in, almost all of them include paragraphs by which you assign permanently and completely all rights to your DNA use for medical or commercial purposes to the company. That's right, when you send off your saliva sample, you are literally transferring ownership of your own DNA to the company.

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Lt. Col. Vindman is a tool

By Donald Sensing

I mean that Army Lt. Col. and National Security Council staffer Alexander Vindman is being used as a tool by House Democrats, not that he is trying to do so - although the evidence that he is trying is not absent, see below.


The impeachers are accusing Republicans of attacking Vindman's service and patriotism. Funny thing is, I have not seen any such attacks, I have seen only Democrats' accusations of them. But let's humor them:

Pick the one, single officer whose patriotism is off limits to any possible criticism.
Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman
Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn
Maj. Tulsi Gabbard
But back to Vindman. I have some pointed comments about him and his testimony yesterday to Congress. I will only offer my own bio as a founding for what I am writing here.

Today the AP reports, Colonel testifies he raised concerns about Ukraine, Trump. And in the first paragraph (my boldface):
WASHINGTON (AP) — Defying White House orders, an Army officer serving with President Donald Trump’s National Security Council testified to impeachment investigators Tuesday that he twice raised concerns over the administration’s push to have Ukraine investigate Democrats and Joe Biden.

That alone shatters his credibility with me. Officers do not get a choice of what orders they get to obey. The Supreme Court of the United States wrote in Parker v. Levy, 1974, “An army is not a deliberative body. It is an executive arm. Its law is that of obedience. No question can be left open as to the right of command in the officer, or the duty of obedience in the soldier.”

The armed forces' Manual for Court Martial, the instruction of how to implement the statutes of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, states plainly, “the dictates of a person’s conscience, religion, or personal philosophy cannot justify or excuse the disobedience of an otherwise lawful order.”

The Manual also puts a soldier's obligation to obey this way: "An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate."

Yet Vindman disobeyed his order not to appear before Congress simply because he wanted to. His entire credibility is utterly shattered and his willful disobedience reveals him as a partisan hack in uniform.

This officer is being hailed as a hero because he placed country above Trump etc. etc. as required by his oath of commissioning in which swore to "protect and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic." His advocates skip right over the part where he also swore, "I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office upon which I am about to enter...."

I took the same oath of commissioning that Vindman took, and in my view he clearly violated it in doing what he did. The "duties of the office" absolutely include obedience to the orders of the President and officers within his chain of command, unless they are clearly and unarguably illegal. Difference of opinion does not count.

According to the AP report of his testimony, not once - not. one. time. - did he raise any Constitutional issue with the phone call or ever claim  - again: not. one. time. - that Trump's conversation ever constituted an illegal order to him that he had no choice but to refuse.

All of Vindman's dissent with the content of the phone call is over policy.
“I was concerned by the call,” Vindman said, according to prepared remarks obtained by The Associated Press. “I did not think it was proper to demand that a foreign government investigate a U.S. citizen, and I was worried about the implications for the U.S. government’s support of Ukraine.”
He has no authority as a military officer or as an NSC staffer to assess whether a policy position of the president is "proper." He has absolutely zero authority to oppose a president's position regarding US support of Ukraine or any other nation. Foreign policy belongs solely within the White House as advised by the State Dept. The NSC has no charter - and therefore neither does Vindman - for original formulation of US foreign policy.

Vindman, or any other military officer, is completely free to disagree privately with administration policy or the orders he is given, I encountered that myself many times in my military career. But that means exactly bupkus. The "duties of the office" remain unchanged: to execute directives and orders and to carry out policy to the best of an officer's ability.
He [Vindman] wrote, “I realized that if Ukraine pursued an investigation into the Bidens and Burisma, it would likely be interpreted as a partisan play which would undoubtedly result in Ukraine losing the bipartisan support it has thus far maintained. This would all undermine U.S. national security.”
That is of course pure speculation. And even if entirely correct, it is irrelevant to the discharge of his duties. Let me emphasize again: Lieutenant-colonels do not set policy and absolutely have no business even considering "partisan politics" in the performance of their duties. That is literally not his problem.

BTW, I can read his ribbons, too, and this is by no means a "highly decorated" lieutenant colonel. He holds the Combat Infantry Badge, signifying that he served at least 30 days in a designated combat theater occupying an infantry personnel slot. Which one would expect since he is an infantry officer, but the CIB is awarded for being physically present in theater, not for seeing actual combat. That he also holds the Purple Heart (for IED wound in 2004, when he would have been a junior-grade officer) would indicate that he did see combat. He also was awarded the Ranger tab, which is not a decoration but an achievement (and a very difficult one, too). So his creds are no better than ordinary for an infantry LTC.

The top two ribbons in his photo in the AP article are, viewer's left to right, the Purple Heart and the Defense Meritorious Service Medal. In the second row are a single Army Meritorious Service Medal, then Army Commendation Medal. After that a series of "place" ribbons, denoting service in certain deployment areas of the world, but not linked to doing anything there but getting off the plane. Literally, if you show up you will get the ribbon. (I have some of them, too.)

But there is not one combat decoration there except the Purple Heart. The MSM is not very impressive, actually. I have three myself; they are normally awarded at the end of a tour as a "thanks for being here" award, sometimes though rarely for outstanding achievement. I am sort of curious why he has only one Army MSM; the single Defense MSM would come from service on a joint-service assignment. (I have a different joint-service ribbon.)

That said, dummies do not get assigned to either joint staffs or the NSC. So he is unquestionably a smart man, but IMO he definitely went outside his lane in his reaction to the phone call. And definitely  in appearing before the committee.

Update: Here is Lt. Col. Vindman's opening statement to the committee. IMO, it's a nothing burger. And with the actual transcript of the call made public a month ago, what did Vindman tell Congress that they didn't already know? Nuthin'.

Update: A retired officer who knows Vindman personally has some choice words.

And a retired Army lieutenant colonel explains why he had Vindman, then a major, step outside for some private, one-way counseling of what professional conduct means, during a Combined US-Russian exercise in Germany.

UpdateAlex Vindman’s Impeachment Testimony Completely Rested On His Personal Opinions

Sunday, October 20, 2019

My take on Syria, Turkey, and the Kurds

By Donald Sensing


Link to article

I worked with Petraeus when we were both at the Pentagon. He was a major then, promoted to Lt. Col. not long after I came to know him. I respect him immensely. He and Gen. Mattis were the key, essential players in redirecting US strategy in Iraq away from the disastrous Rumsfeld model. I have never met Mattis, but have nothing but greatest respect for him. Marines I have known who worked with him are in awe, and that says a lot. 

So when Petraeus and Mattis both sharply disagree with the administration's decision, I have no choice but to pay attention. 

But having said that, I would say their view is very solidly an establishment one. Senior military officers prosper very well. They gain their rank and status not only because of the military skills, but their political skills as well. They retire as comfortable members of the country's political class and often wind up with lucrative corporate consultancies and defense-related boards. I have seen this play out with three- and four-star generals I worked for. I do not blame them, actually, but we need to understand that they are far too invested in the status quo to try to change it. It what got them their rank and positions in the first place. Their incentives to change it are exactly zero. (This also applies to senior diplomatic personnel.)

I wrote a long essay in 2008 on why the US should exit NATO but of course, with both the outgoing Bush and incoming Obama administrations, there was so much Old Guardism at work that there was (and is) no chance. Petraeus and Mattis (and I, for that matter) were raised militarily and strategically with a Cold War, organizational mind-think that has not significantly subsided. They still think that what G. Washington warned against, "entangling alliances," should be normative and are simply the MO for how things get done. 

Fourteen years ago Petraeus and Mattis were the Young Turks. Now they are the Old Guard. And that should temper how we assess what they say. None of this is to say that all will turn out well today. In fact, it would be insane to say so. Things never work out well in the Middle East! 

But it is also a real error to assume that had a mere 50 US troops been left in place, than everything would now be unicorns and rainbows. Turkey did not ask our permission to incur. They simply announced they were doing it. Turkey did not ask Trump to withdraw the troops; Trump just got them the heck out of the way. It would be nice for Petraeus and others to say how they would have responded to Turkey's announcement that it was coming, instead of just clutching their pearls in protest. They know better because they many times had to think through questions such those as I pose later in this essay. They know how to do it, but now they do not need to do it because the media will smile kindly upon them if they don't. And that is a problem.

My take: 

There is no solution to the problem of the Kurds. The Kurds have been screwed, they are being screwed, and they will continue to be screwed, because only Iraq, Turkey, and Syria (and Iran, as if...) can resolve the issue and all of them see the Kurds as tools to be used for their own purposes against the others. No Western nation can possibly have any effective role - not the USA, not Britain, not NATO, not nobody.

The Kurdish PKK is Turkey's main target. The PKK, Partiya KarkerĂȘn Kurdistan, is a Marxist faction that has been launching cross-border raids into Turkey since 1984 - as have other Kurdish factions. The PKK is classified as a terrorist organization by the Turks. And also by the US, the EU, NATO, and even Japan.

Turkey did not ask Trump to move 50 US soldiers out of their way. (Yes, 50.) Turkey simply announced that they were coming in. Would you rather those US troops stay there and resist the Turks by force of arms?

Anyone who is denouncing the withdrawal of a few dozen US troops from the affected area of Turkish operations, insisting they should not have been withdrawn, should first answer one basic question:

If you were president, would you have ordered US troops to resist the Turkish incursion by force of arms? 
Then proceed to these:
  • If you would have given that order:
    • What is your strategic goal?
    • How many US troops are you are willing to have killed to attain that goal? 
    • Once US troops are killed, what would be your response? 
    • How many Turks are you willing to kill to attain the strategic goal? 
    • Would you escalate the violence if the Turks do not withdraw? If so, would you restrict US combat strikes to only the incursion area, or would you strike Turkish forces still inside Turkey proper? For either answer, explain why.
    • How will you ensure the safety of thousands of US Air Force personnel, aircraft, special weapons, and family members at the Turkish air base at Incirlik, Turkey? There are also large numbers British and Spanish military personnel there. 
    • Would you ask for a congressional authorization of use of military force against Turkey? 
      • If yes, are you really willing to go to war with a decades-long, US-ally member of NATO? 
      • If not, why not? Would you wage war against Turkey anyway?
          
  • If you would not have given that order:
    • What is your strategic goal?
    • Why would you leave the troops in place rather than withdraw them, if they are not to fight?
    • What would you have done specifically different from what the administration has done, and why?
Anyone who will not address those topics before slamming the administration is not thinking about this seriously at all. And yes, that includes congressional members of both parties and, sadly, many of my ministry colleagues who have posted about this topic.

Democrats: Trump must never use US troops to secure America's border with Mexico!

Also Democrats: Trump must use US troops to secure Syria's border with Turkey!


Update: This article is pretty well balanced and explains why Trump did not sell out the Kurds while also pointing out that Erdogan is pretty much a thug himself. (But we knew that.)

Update: "Missing the Bigger Picture in Kurdish Syria," by Lt. Col. (ret.) Bob Maginnis, is an instructor at the Army War College. "He oversees a team of national security experts in the Pentagon and has more than 800 published articles on national security and geopolitical issues."

Monday, October 7, 2019

A little history

By Donald Sensing

Couple of vids I ran across while looking for something else.

"On 30th July 1915, the Captain of a German U-Boat claimed to have witnessed a gigantic sea creature in the north Atlantic during an attack on a British steamboat. I look at the evidence and discuss the story's credibility."




The Battle of Midway 1942: Told from the Japanese Perspective (1/2)

This is part one of a planned two-part video covering Operation MI. As you can see I spent a considerable amount of time covering Nagumo’s Dilemma. To me it's one of most striking examples of how tough it can be for a commander to make a decision based on the information at hand. I found that to be the most interesting aspect of the battle. 


Bookmark and Share

Monday, September 2, 2019

Enlaces para pensar - 2 de septiembre

By Donald Sensing

Socialist medicine will work great! Just look at the VA! When my liberal friends tell me that government-controlled medical care is unarguably the best America could ever get, I always reply, "So show me. Fix the VA and when it is running just like you want Medicare for All to work, tell me and I will take you more seriously." Then they get mad at me.

Well, here ya go: Officials are investigating 11 suspicious deaths at a VA hospital. Two have been ruled homicides.

But wait! There's more! Horror: VA Failed To Stop Pathologist Who Misdiagnosed Thousands — And Showed Up Drunk For Work

My point is not that stuff like this never happens in our current, private hospitals. It is that government bureaucrats always protect their own, and when the medical staff becomes, basically, another group of bureaucrats, then you get more of that code of omerta, and it is protected by the bureaucracy. Remember 2015's Gold King Mine Spill, caused exclusively by federal EPA employees? How many federal bureaucrats got fired or disciplined for it? Zero.

Stanford University makes segregation official policy. Stanford pushes separate physics course for minority students

  • In an effort to achieve “diversity” within its physics department, Stanford University is offering a separate physics course in order to ensure retention of “underrepresented” physics majors.
  • The initiative also includes two other physics courses focusing entirely on “diversity” and “inclusion” within the discipline.


The second bullet means that the "two other physics courses" are not actually physics courses. They are political courses. Stanford says as much:
Other courses offered to bridge the supposed diversity problem at Stanford include two one-unit physics courses that address not physics itself, but rather concepts of diversity within the discipline.
But they will count toward fulfilling a physics major, you betcha. In fact, they will soon be required for a B.S. in physics if they are not already.

Science courses used to be about, well, science. Now, like everything else the Left touches, they are increasing about political indoctrination. Not even the Soviet Union went that far.

How long will it be until you board an airliner designed by engineers whose major in aeronautical engineering had a principal focus on diversity and inclusion in engineering? Good luck with that!

"Religion is a check on moral relativism, so naturally the left hates it." Well, Left-wing politics is a religion and it does not tolerate competition. Like this: WBAP Morning News: Beto Supporters Boo Man Who Said America Needs to ‘Return to Jesus’
At a recent Town Hall event, Beto O’Rourke supporters booed a man who told the crowd that America needs to “return to Jesus” in order to heal. 



You will need counseling after clicking this link: Truly awful, idiotic, and just plain inexplicable but real kitchens in real houses. Don't say I didn't warn you. 


And then there are the living rooms. Living Room Design Fails So Bad, They'll Scare the Living Daylights Out of You

Love that it is for sale for more than one million dollars.
Shooting down drones is now easy. Well, for now. New military system could aloows soldiers to eliminate drones with one shot


With the system, the user selects and locks onto the target, and as soon as the trigger is squeezed, the system calculates the target’s movement and predicts its next location by means of advanced image processing and algorithms. SMASH 2000 prevents the bullet being fired until the target is precisely in its crosshairs.
It is also being tested by US armed forces.

"Senegal was not a hellhole." What I Learned in the Peace Corps in Africa: Trump Is Right
Very poor people can lead happy, meaningful lives in their own cultures' terms.  But they are not our terms.  The excrement is the least of it.  Our basic ideas of human relations, right and wrong, are incompatible.

Take something as basic as family.  Family was a few hundred people, extending out to second and third cousins.  All the men in one generation were called "father."  Senegalese are Muslim, with up to four wives.  Girls had their clitorises cut off at puberty.  (I witnessed this, at what I thought was going to be a nice coming-of-age ceremony, like a bat mitzvah or confirmation.)  Sex, I was told, did not include kissing.  Love and friendship in marriage were Western ideas.  Fidelity was not a thing.  Married women would have sex for a few cents to have cash for the market.

What I did witness every day was that women were worked half to death.  Wives raised the food and fed their own children, did the heavy labor of walking miles to gather wood for the fire, drew water from the well or public faucet, pounded grain with heavy hand-held pestles, lived in their own huts, and had conjugal visits from their husbands on a rotating basis with their co-wives.  Their husbands lazed in the shade of the trees.

Yet family was crucial to people there in a way Americans cannot comprehend.

The Ten Commandments were not disobeyed – they were unknown.  The value system was the exact opposite.  You were supposed to steal everything you can to give to your own relatives.  There are some Westernized Africans who try to rebel against the system.  They fail.
Read the whole thing.

Have a great Labor Day! Even though This Labor Day, Unions Are Gunning for Workers' Free Speech Rights

Bookmark and Share

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Why it's not about us

By Donald Sensing

Why Memorial Day is not about us living veterans.









____________



Bookmark and Share

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Take an Angelic joyride

By Donald Sensing

This is worth the hour it will take you. Go full screen with volume up.


 
Bookmark and Share

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Syria is not worth the trouble or treasure

By Donald Sensing

This is not a strategy. And absent a strategy, it is not
even a decent warning.
Andrew Codevilla lays it out with elegance and precision, "What Is Syria to Us?" And the answer is pretty much a goose egg. The United States just wasted more than $100 million worth of precision weapons to accomplish exactly zero of military or strategic significance.

The U.S. strikes last week on suspected chemical weapons sites near Damascus and Homs exemplify how not to use military force. Their only consequence is to highlight the poverty of the foreign policy of which they are part: driven by questionable intelligence, the “CNN effect,” and an inability to come to grips with real problems.

The strikes did a little harm to Syrian leader Bashar al Assad, who is a dependent of Iran and Russia and who is nearly helpless vis Ă  vis our newest enemy, Turkey. Iran is extending its reach to the Mediterranean and threatening war on Israel. Russia is solidifying hegemony over the Middle East. Turkey is making war on the Kurds, the only real allies the United States has had in the region in a generation. Instead of braking any of these ominous developments, the U.S. government, reverting to type, destroyed a few buildings and hyped its own virtues in garbled neo-Wilsonian lingo.

Read the whole thing.

Bookmark and Share

Friday, April 13, 2018

Syria Sarin Attack a Hoax?

By Donald Sensing

Update: A few readers have pointed out that the linked article herein actually refers to last year's sarin attack, not last week's. I regret my error. I plan to post a follow-up soon.

Is Trump being played by anti-Assad elements who staged the recent sarin attack in the hope that Trump would go his usual bananas at being defied?

Well, that would depend on the attack being a staged or hoaxed attack to begin with. And an MIT expert claims that the chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged.

A leading weapons academic has claimed that the Khan Sheikhoun nerve agent attack in Syria was staged, raising questions about who was responsible. ...

Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [said] ... "I have reviewed the [White House's] document carefully, and I believe it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the US government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria at roughly 6am to 7am on 4 April, 2017.
 Referring to the photo above,
His analysis of the shell suggests that it could not have been dropped from an airplane as the damage of the casing is inconsistent from an aerial explosion. Instead, Postol said it was more likely that an explosive charge was laid upon the shell containing sarin, before being detonated.
Read the whole article. Postol is a former science adviser to the defense department.

Among the credentials of my military career was that of nuclear and chemical target analysis. I was trained and qualified to determine the manner of attacking a target with chemical weapons, including sarin, attack calculations that would include amount of agent and technical attack profile.

Sarin is heavier than air. It has been many years since I worked such a problem, but I cannot recollect solving an attack profile with a ground burst. Lay persons simply do not know that enormous quantities of gas are required. Some of the problems we worked to attack Soviet formations actually required more nerve agent for one attack than the US had in its entire inventory.

Actually, sarin is not a gas, but a liquid. The warhead's charge is designed to explode the liquid sarin into basically a mist that is borne by prevailing winds over the target area, where the mist settles. Sarin can evaporate into a vapor, but doing so lessens it lethality by lowering the concentration in the air.

The linked article implies that a sarin delivery warhead explodes the way a high-explosive projectile would. That is not the case. Such an explosion would destroy much of the sarin content. Instead, a shell or bomblet would be designed to basically disassemble, releasing the interior container to dispel the sarin liquid in mist form.

However, the pieces  of the projectile simply drop to the earth. The article's photo shows what appears to be an intact casing, deformed in a crater in a concrete or asphalt street.

Um, no. First, while some delivery systems did retain an intact projectile (such as the US 155mm artillery projectile), cratering would be most unlikely in impact. There would be no HE to explode. Furthermore, having also been trained in crater analysis at the US Army Artillery Center and School, I absolutely guarantee that no such casing causing such a crater would conveniently remain nearly intact in the middle of the crater.

So I think that MIT Prof. Postol is correct. And sane heads within the defense department probably have been heard at the White House (I am guessing here) so that Trump has backed off his initial outrage.

Maybe they need to remember the old adage: "First reports are always wrong."

Bookmark and Share

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Panetta on Syria: We have never had a clue

By Donald Sensing

The former Obama official referred to is Leon Panetta, one of the most sensible figures of Washington in either party. This is not a particularly well-written essay, but it does illuminate the fact that neither the prior administration nor the present one had/has a clue what the US objective is in Syria: Former Obama Defense, CIA Chief: U.S. 'Has Really Never Had a Strategy' on Syria

"And so, rather than developing that strategy, rather than trying to play a role in forcing Syria to figure out some kind of political settlement there that would get rid of Assad and allow Syrians to decide what their political future is, frankly, we have been hitting ISIS, on the side talking about Assad, but really don't have an overall strategy," he added. "And if we're going to strike Syria I don't think this ought to be a reflex action without a strategy. That's what this administration has to do, is figure out what is our long-term strategy in Syria going to be."
Which is to say that we do not like what Assad has done in using chemical weapons, but we have  no strategy to respond and no national objectives in responding. So to go to war with Syria would be like entering a dark room blindfolded in search of something that is not there.


Furthermore, absent specific Congressional authorization, a strike now against Syria would be an illegal war. Congress alone has the authority to declare war against a foreign power. That Congress' record of carrying out its Constitutional duties is one of abject failure and abdication, does not create a vacuum that a president may occupy to usurp Congress' authority.

Even if Congress did so declare, absent decisive and attainable national objectives to lead to a more just peace, the war would be unjust.

Yes, Assad is a monster. And his Russian sponsor, Putin, is a thug. And Iran is wielding strong influence in Syria also. That does not change the American domestic equation or our Constitutional requirements or the mandates of Just War Theory.

"Decide in hast, repent in leisure," said the ancient Greeks. It's long past time for Trump (and not only Trump) to take that to heart.

No war against Syria!

Related: "Just War and Syria Strikes"

Bookmark and Share

Monday, February 26, 2018

Why the AR-15 is a very deadly military weapon

By Donald Sensing

Introduction

I advise readers in advance that parts of this post will be both technical and probably unsettling. I am going to describe the wound ballistics of the 5.56mm round fired by the civilian-model AR-15 rifle, which is the civilian version of the US military's M4 carbine rifle. The only difference between the two weapons is that the M4 has a selector switch that enables it to fire fully automatic. That is, if the shooter depresses and holds the trigger, the weapon will will continue to fire until its ammunition supply in exhausted.

Both weapons will fire semi-auto, where a trigger pull shoots one round only. Trained shooters can fire very rapidly that way by pulling and releasing the trigger, but the rate of fire will not be nearly as high as full auto. Nonetheless, it still will be very high.

In ballistics, the general principles of which I learned at the US Army Field Artillery School, there are three phases of rifle (or artillery) ammunition: barrel ballistics, flight ballistics, and terminal ballistics. For rifles, terminal ballistics are usually called wound ballistics - what happens to the bullet when it strikes a target. For this discussion, the target is a human body.

I gained my expertise, such as it may be, in this arcane subject area in my military career during the years I served as a principal staff officer of US Army Criminal Investigation Command, which is the Army's version of NCIS (for which there is an extremely unrealistic series on TV). Investigators become specialized over time in diverse forensic fields ranging from accounting to blood-pattern analysis to wound ballistics. They were my tutors. So that is where I learned most of these factors. I asked CID agents to review my final draft of this article and received very learned and concise additions and emendations, which I have incorporated. One retired agent who reviewed it, Patrick G., spent 40 years in forensic ballistics work, including wound ballistics. He had investigated a large number of cases involving military rifles. I am grateful for the agents' contributions.

Also, this is a long post of several minutes reading time.

History of the rifle and ammunition

After World War II the US Army and NATO countries adopted 7.62mm rifle rounds as the standard. I am, not trying to sound pedantic, but that means that the bullet is 7.62 millimeters in diameter. "Caliber" is expressed as a decimal of inches, for example, .30-caliber means the bullet is 3/10 inch in diameter.

By the latter 1950s, the U.S. began working to find a different rifle round for the NATO standard. Finally, the Armalite Rifle (hence, "AR") company produced the rifle that in 1963 was adopted by the US Army as the M16. Armalite also worked on the rifle in concert with Remington Arms for the ammunition, which was type-classified also in 1963 as the 5.56mm M193 round. However, while the 5.56mm round was adopted as the NATO standard in 1977, it was not the US the M193  because several NATO nations considered the wounds the M193 produced to be so devastating that they approached inhumane.

The M16 rifle itself had serious teething problems in the Vietnam war. Early models were prone to misfeeding and jamming. These were finally corrected and the rifle and ammunition became extremely lethal tools in the hands of American soldiers and Marines. Because the M16 was lightweight and the M193 produced low recoil compared to previous military rounds, US troops were able to achieve very high rates of accurate fire, much higher on both counts than the 7.62mm round or its .30-06 WW2 predecessor. (.30-06 means that it is a .30-caliber round that was adopted by the military in 1906.)

The NATO standard 7.62mm round, left, and the 5.56mm round next to a AA battery. 

Why is the 5.56mm round so deadly in school shootings?

The 5.56 round is so devastating is because of its ballistic characteristics and its very high velocity. Barrel ballistics are not significant for this discussion.

Flight ballistics: The bullet exits the muzzle of the AR-15 (or M4) unstable. The bullet is not merely spinning around its long axis (the front to rear line). It also "yaws" circularly, up to 4 degrees off center line (a form of gyroscopic precession). At about 100 meters, however, the yaw disappears and the round flies very stable out to about 400 meters, when it starts yawing again.

Victims of school shootings are all shot at ranges of much less than 100 meters. So the bullet strikes them while still yawing. That directly affects what happens to them,

Terminal, or wound, ballistics: There is a term or art among law-enforcement officers called, "instant incapacitation." It means a firearm wound that is so severe that the stuck person becomes functionally incapable either immediately or within very few seconds. Instant incapacitation is caused by two things: First is massive and sudden loss of blood. Second is severe interruption of the central nervous system. The 5.56 does both.

1. The 5.56 round exits the rifle at just more than 1,000 meters per second, about three times the speed of sound.  When the 5.56 bullet hits a human body, it immediately begins to decelerate. This bullet's length to width ratio is high. The nose of the bullet begins to decelerate but the rear is still traveling supersonic. The rear is going faster than the nose. This causes the rear to overtake the nose, meaning that the bullet begins to tumble end over end. This tumbling in turn causes the bullet to fragment not quite completely and the fragments travel through flesh, bounce off bone into new directions and sever nervous system connections. This tumbling is greatly enhanced if the bullet is yawing at impact, as every bullet fired during a school shooting is. That is part one of what causes instant incapacitation.

2. Many ballisticians also say that the supersonic shock wave, shaped like a cone pointed in the direction the bullet was flying, enters the entrance wound and expands it rapidly for a distance into the body (how much depends on the location of the entrance wound and the angle). This causes excess bleeding over what the bullet would cause alone. This effect is called "hydrostatic shock," but not all armaments ballisticians agree that it is significantly damaging. In fact, while sound travels four times faster through human tissue than through the air, sonic waves have been proven not to damage the body.

Cavitation: Any high-velocity bullet (and almost all non-HV bullets, too) not only creates a cavity in the body corresponding to the width of the bullet, they also create large-diameter cavities from the sudden displacement of tissue caused by the speed of the bullet. This is called "cavitation." A radiologist who helped treat victims at Parkland described it this way:
The bullet from an AR-15 passes through the body like a cigarette boat traveling at maximum speed through a tiny canal. The tissue next to the bullet is elastic—moving away from the bullet like waves of water displaced by the boat—and then returns and settles back. This process is called cavitation; it leaves the displaced tissue damaged or killed. The high-velocity bullet causes a swath of tissue damage that extends several inches from its path. It does not have to actually hit an artery to damage it and cause catastrophic bleeding. Exit wounds can be the size of an orange.
However, the effects of cavitation depend on the tissue affected. Muscle tissue is much less affected and, given survival of the victim, muscle tissue will recover. Vital organs are not so hardy. They can be badly damaged by cavitation but even so, actual destruction is caused by bullet fragmentation much more than cavitation.

Here are photos of cavitation in ballistic gelatin hit by a 5.56 round. The top photo is of a non-yawing round, the bottom of a yawing round. At the far left of each photo is the bullet angle of attack.


 As you can see, while both impacts are horrific, the yaw "wound" is truly devastating. Earlier in the same article, the radioligist observed,
I was looking at a CT scan of one of the mass-shooting victims from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, who had been brought to the trauma center during my call shift. The organ looked like an overripe melon smashed by a sledgehammer, and was bleeding extensively. How could a gunshot wound have caused this much damage?

The reaction in the emergency room was the same. One of the trauma surgeons opened a young victim in the operating room, and found only shreds of the organ that had been hit by a bullet... .Nothing was left to repair—and utterly, devastatingly, nothing could be done to fix the problem. The injury was fatal.

These facts are why I reject as unfounded - indeed, invalid and misleading - claims that the 5.56mm round is nothing special compared to other rifle rounds and is not very powerful at all, a claim that was explicitly made in  Tennessean op-ed only yesterday (Feb. 25), "Why blaming the AR-15 for mass shootings is misguided." The author, Robin Patty, "is a disabled veteran and a former Special Forces operator who resides in Murfreesboro." While I thank her for her service, neither being a disabled veteran (so am I) or a Special Forces operator bestows special expertise in this area.

In her op-ed, Ms. Patty writes of the AR-15 firing a 5.56mm round,
It’s not powerful, so much so that some states don’t allow the cartridge that it fires to be used on deer.  
This weapons system was never designed or intended to be used to hunt any kind of game animal. It was developed by the Defense Department to do one thing only: kill humans beings of enemy armies as quickly as possible. For that purpose, it is extremely powerful. That some states do not allow it to be used to hunt deer is true. It is also irrelevant.
It’s not military grade. It simply looks like a military rifle, as the M16/M4 are all capable of automatic fire and the AR-15 is not.  
As I wrote above, that is the only difference between the military M4 and the civilian AR-15. I again say it is true but also irrelevant. Perhaps (as in maybe) Cruz could have mowed down 45 killed and 25 wounded if he had been shooting an M4 on full auto. So what? Does that make 17 dead and 12 wounded somehow less serious or less urgent for actions to prevent another repeat? Of course not.

When discussing school shootings - and not other kinds of murders or even other mass shootings - there is a unique threat in the 5.56 round fired from the AR-15 rifle.

That is why I find it difficult to oppose raising the legal age to 21 to possess these weapons because frankly, an average 18-year-old today is mentally and morally at about the level of a 14-year-old (and often younger) of any prior generation. At the same time, though, Cruz is the only school mass killer under age 21; all the others were mid-twenties except Lanza, 20, and he murdered his mother to get his hands on her AR-15.

So while I will not oppose raising the legal-possession age, I also do not really think it will much matter. But I will go one step further: if 18-year-olds are too immature to own a rifle, then we sure as H E double hockey sticks should not let them vote, either.

Coming soon: The other op-ed in Sunday's Tennessean saying, "A solution to ending mass shootings: Ending sales of guns to civilians," and why it is even more gravely in error than Ms. Patty's op-ed. In fact, it is downright looney. But that is for later.

Update: Agent G. also referred me to this paper by the renowned Army forensic-wound specialist, Col. M.L. Fackler, M.D., "What wrong with wound ballistics literature, and why," 1987. Not for the faint of heart and quite technical.

Related:

Mass shootings: "Hope is not a method and wishes are not plans"

Complacency and ideology, not just Cruz, killed those students

What gun laws did Cruz violate?

More from the University of Utah:

Bookmark and Share

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

This used to be satire, not reality

By Donald Sensing

The satire:



The reality:

Cold War-era B-52 to outlive younger, sleeker rival Air Force bombers
The Air Force on Monday revealed its long-range plan to eventually jettison its supersonic B-1 and stealthy B-2 bombers earlier than planned while keeping the venerable B-52, an aging Cold War workhorse that first flew in 1954 and was last built in 1962, flying into the 2050s.

The Air Force confirmed that it plans to send its two newer bombers into early retirement, but keep the B-52 in the inventory well past its 100th birthday.

“With an adequate sustainment and modernization focus, including new engines, the B-52 has a projected service life through 2050, remaining a key part of the bomber enterprise well into the future,” said Gen. Robin Rand, Air Force Global Strike Command commander, in a statement issued by the Air Force.
By the time the B-52 is retired, its pilots may include one or more whose great-grandfathers once flew the same plane.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

"Friendly fire" is not friendly

By Donald Sensing


This event happened during the Russian war games Zapad 2017 within the last few days.
The Russian military acknowledged that a helicopter accidentally fired a rocket during drills, but did not say when and where it happened. It insisted that no one was hurt in the incident.

The video released on the online 66.ru, RBC and Life.ru news portals showed a pair of Ka-52 helicopter gunships sweeping low at the Luzhsky range, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) east of the border with Estonia, during the Zapad (West) 2017 maneuvers. The video showed one of the helicopters firing a rocket that explodes next to a spectator on a parking lot.

66.ru said Tuesday two people were seriously wounded and two vehicles were destroyed in the incident. It said the accident happened Sunday or Monday, and that the video was provided by an unidentified witness.

Life.ru said the rocket exploded near a crowd of journalists, military experts and foreign military attaches.

It said a preliminary investigation by military officials indicated the incident was caused by a short-circuit in the helicopter's electric system that resulted in the accidental launch of the rocket. Life.ru also posted a cockpit video, showing the rocket's impact.

Both Life.ru and RBC reported that the incident took place Saturday and say that three people were injured.
My first thought on the cause of the firing was crew error because old car bodies are frequently used as target during range training. In the artillery, we used them for direct-fire training and I will tell you that a 155mm HE projectile will do wonders on a rusted out Ford Fairlane.

I am skeptical that the poor guy walking next to the targeted car survived.

Bookmark and Share

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

'I was just doing my job': Soviet officer who averted nuclear war dies at age 77 — RT News

By Donald Sensing

I learned about this years ago. The dangers of the Cold War were very real, and in my view, this Soviet officer is almost certainly the greatest hero of the entire 20th century (or longer), and yet hardly anyone knows what he did. If you are alive today, this man is probably the reason why.
Even bearing in mind that RT.com is a Russian propaganda site, this is a good account.

'I was just doing my job': Soviet officer who averted nuclear war dies at age 77 — RT News




Bookmark and Share

Thursday, September 14, 2017

The King now and evermore

By Donald Sensing


Bookmark and Share

Monday, September 4, 2017

Ah, ballistics!

By Donald Sensing


An M109A6 Paladin howitzer, assigned to the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division (Iron Brigade), fires during Exercise Combined Resolve IX at the Grafenwoehr Training Area, Germany, Aug. 21 2017.

Exercise Combine Resolve IX is designed to train the Army’s Regionally Allocated Forces to the U.S. European Command. The goal of the exercise is to prepare forces in Europe to operate together to promote stability and security in the region.

U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Matthew Hulett
I was a battery commander in Germany in the early 1980s in 3d Armored  Division's 2d Battalion, 3d Field Artillery Regiment. We were equipped with an earlier model of the M109-series, the -A3. The M109 series has been around for more than 50 years and badly needs to be replaced. The Army tried to do so once, but the program was canceled by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

Bookmark and Share