Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Ice Age looms again

Turns out that all those "looming ice age" doomsayers back in the 1970s were right after all: "Auguring brief era of ice in 2010."

An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that in about ten years the Earth will enter a "little ice age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the UNAM, as argued earlier during a conference that teaches at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. [...]

Velasco Herrera described as erroneous predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), pursuant to which the planet is experiencing a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming.

The models and forecasts of the IPCC "is incorrect because only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity," said the specialist also in image processing and signs and prevention of natural disasters.

The phenomenon of climate change, he added, should include other kinds of factors, both internal, such as volcanoes and the very human activity, and external, such as solar activity.

"Curiously, the star never has been seen as a cooling agent, but warming, but has two roles", he said.

At present, assured the world is going through a transition phase where solar activity diminishes considerably, "so that in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years," and the immediate consequence of this He added, will be drought.
Which is worse than having an equivalent amount of warming. Solar activity, especially sunspots, is a major influence of earth's temperatures. As solar scientists have been point out for many months (maybe a couple of years), sunspot formations are low to non-existent.




The red line is sunspot activity. Note the far right; it's at the bottom and flat. This chart only goes back to May, but here's what was happening on the sun yesterday:




Science Daily reported in June, "The sun has been lying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots... ." Finally, here is a chart correlating global temperatures with solar activity since 1600:

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