Victor Hanson reinforces my thesis

On Monday I wrote what Russia's Georgia gambit has done. It was a short post and so here is the whole thing except the first two sentences.

Russia can move its forces on the ground faster than diplomats can move themselves to conferences. So Russia blitzes Georgia while the rest of the world tries to figure out what is happening.

Security Council resolution? Not a chance. Russia will veto it. And if the Russian delegate got drunk and missed the vote, China will.

Bring Georgia into NATO? Nope, not a chance there, either. Some American commentators think that this is a good idea because it will bring Georgia under NATO's protective umbrella. Let two things be noted here. First, no European commentators or politicians are saying this, which should give you a good idea of how they regard the notion. Second, there is no such thing as NATO's protective umbrella. If there was, NATO contingents other than Britain's would be conducting actual combat operations in Afghanistan. Absent American military power, there is no NATO military power.

Russia will have its way, whatever its way actually is, and the US and the West will do exactly nothing. The US will not go to war to turn Russia back (nor would the US be able to do so even if it wanted), and Europe can't go to war without the US. Absent a credible threat of force, the protestations of diplomats mean precisely zilch because there are no sanctions that are remotely possible that Vladimir Putin et. al. will think more painful than the benefits of enforcing their will against Georgia.

The balance of power just tipped, folks, and there is not one darn thing we can do about it.

I wrote that just before the ceasefire agreement, which has of course turned out to be not much of a ceasefire. Yesterday, Victor Davis Hanson posted a longer essay that pretty much said the same thing I did, and added a little more.

Military intervention is out of the question. Economic sanctions, given Russia’s oil and Europe’s need for it, are a pipe dream. Diplomatic ostracism and moral stricture won’t even save face.

Instead, Europe — both western and eastern — along with the United States and the concerned former Soviet Republics need to sit down, conference, and plot exactly how these new democracies are to maintain their independence and autonomy in the next decade. Hopefully, they will reach the Franklinesque conclusion that “We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.”

Read the whole thing.