The Guardian:
This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.So there you are. It might be a good idea for the global warming doomsayers to heed the words of Roger Pielke, Jr. former director of the University of Colorado's Center for Science and Technology Policy Research and associate professor of environmental studies. Wrote he,
The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing however, say climate scientists at the Met Office. "Absolutely not," said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office's Hadley Centre.
I also think that we can best avoid confirmation bias, and other cognitive traps, by making explicit predictions of the future and testing them against experience. The climate community, or at least its activist wing, studiously avoids forecast verification. It just goes to show, confirmation bias is more a more comfortable state than dissonance -- and that goes for people on all sides of the climate debate.Italics added. Did anyone predict, 10 years ago, that temps would plateau and then decline? Well, no. So how, exactly, is climatology, at least in its "activist wing," science?
But let the backpedaling begin: Fred pearce writes elsewhere in the Guardian,
Recently I attended a conference in Reading where some of the world's top experts discussed their failings. How their much-vaunted models of the world's climate system can't reproduce El Niños, or the "blocking highs" that bring heatwaves to Europe - or even the ice ages. How their statistical mimics of tropical climate are "laughable", in the words of the official report.No matter what the climate does contrary to what they predict, we still need to ka-ching a billion dollars to keep climate scientists well provisioned.
This sudden humility was not unconnected with their end-of-conference call for the world to spend a billion dollars on a global centre for climate modelling. A "Manhattan project for the 21st century", as someone put it.
Update:
Warming is evidence of global warming. Cooling does not mean that global warming is not happening, just that it hasn't yet...but it might, still..and then the theory will be right again...except if its not, and then it will be because something has temporarily interfered with the theory working, like cooling, but that doesn't mean the cooling has replaced the warming -- its just hiding it, for now. We know this because the models tell us. Can't be anything else happening like the sun, the oceans or any of that stuff.
Why? Well, because that's why. Isn't science awesome?
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3 comments:
Well, Reverend Sensing, you being a reverend and all surely understand how religions work? No religion is more popular today than the religion of global warming - um - make that climate change (adapting to the new realities, don't you know) - which has avid followers worldwide.
As a weather forecaster for the Air Force I am often asked what I think about global warming. Among the answers I give is this: When their models can predict the weather next week, I may start to pay them some heed. Your "update" is priceless and one I will post in our weather station.
Other than a few "skeptic" sites, it is seldom ointed out that the "models" are made to "test" or "demonstrate" according to IPCC requirements - which are constrained by the founding document of that organisation to look ONLY at human influences, never "natural" causes. Which is why few (if any) include well-known phenomena such as Solar activity, periodic ocean current shifts (such as the PDO), etc.
If you ignore the ten-megaton nuclear explosion next door, you may easily conclude that the leveling of your building - and your own death - are totally owing to the match you just lit.
Which is how a one-degree possible change in temperature cannot have anything to do with that object which provides over five hundred degrees of warmth to Earth.
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