Analysts: Pirates won't start killing crews

Yesterday I posted that after the shooting of three pirates holding Capt. Richard Phillips, the smart play of the other pirates is not to shed blood for blood.

Today the AP reports that despite the pirates' talk, and shippers' fears of increased violence, "The most likely outcome, though, is business as usual for the bandits."

The pirates' primary concerns, however, are economic, and they have no interest in escalating violence.

Pirates armed with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades typically speed toward a ship in skiffs and use ropes and hooks to get aboard without shooting. Within days, a ransom of $1 million to $2 million is delivered, by sea or air, and the ship and crew are released.

As for the widely-cited quote by pirate Jamac Habeb, that, "From now on, if we capture foreign ships and their respective countries try to attack us, we will kill" the hostages,

[A]analysts say that is bluster that will blow away if heightened tensions are allowed to ease.

Instead, pirates more likely will avoid attacking U.S.- and French-flagged ships, said David Johnson of the British-based EOS Risk Management, which trains ship security officers.

"The pirates don't want to escalate violence because it's not in their interests to keep raising the stakes and it also isn't in the interests of other countries out there," he said.

Remember, the financial costs of Somali piracy to shippers and their insurers is actually minimal, less than one percent; the AP says,

Shipping companies have chosen to risk hijackings by going past Somalia and into the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal — the shortest route from Asia to Europe past ports of oil-producing Saudi Arabia. It's cheaper to take the risk and pay the tens of thousands of dollars in insurance premiums. Only two companies use the longer, more expensive route around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Choong said there have been 74 attacks this year with 15 hijackings, compared with 111 attacks in 2008. About 20,000 merchant ships transit the Gulf of Aden annually.

That last datum is significant. Last year, only 0.56 percent of transiting ships were even threatened, and a smaller percentage successfully hijacked. I'd have to look it up, but I'd guess that losses to shippers because of storms may well be higher.

See related posts: piracy.