Oh, it's budget time again . . .

Remember that the operating meme of our government has been openly stated by its top officials, including the secretary of state herself: "Never waste a good crisis."

Now consider two reports about the swine flu. First, the AP reports, "Swine flu may be less potent than first feared."

The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs. President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.

In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.

A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.

But don't worry - the World Health Organization is on it: "WHO Raises Swine Flu Alert to Level 5."

The World Health Organization has raised the swine flu pandemic alert level to phase 5 - just one step below the highest level. The decision comes as the number of countries with confirmed cases rises to at least 10. ...

The increase to level 5 indicates that there is sustained human-to-human transmission in communities in different geographical locations.

That last item, of course, directly contradicts the empirical evidence reported by the AP.

Why do I get the impression that it's budget-pleading time at the WHO? Wait, with any government or UN agency, it's always budget-pleading time.

My prediction, noted epidemiologist that I am: within two weeks the swine flu will have fizzled like a wet firecracker, pandemic-wise. People will still be getting sick, but Level 5 emergency (much less Level 6)? Nope.

Remember, here in the US, between 30,000-35,000 people die every year from flu of the ordinary type. "Ordinary" flu means, of course, flu strains without a catchy, crisis- and cable-news-ready name.

Remind me this fall to write a post warning people of the threat of the hackengag flu.