Cannon, Rockets and Missiles: North Korea's only threats

North Korea's recent shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeong island has drawn renewed attention to the North's military capabilities and political intentions. The latter I'll leave to politicians and take a look at the former.

In every conventional military category except two North Korea is a paper tiger. Its pilots, for example, rarely fly their outmoded planes, most getting probably only enough flight time to remain proficient in basic skills. Its ground forces number more than a million but are not well trained compared to the South's or America's. Their maneuver forces do not enjoy modern weapons. Its "new" tank, the P'okpoong, is basically a locally-made T-62, first fielded by the Soviets in 1961. Despite the North's success in sinking a South Korean corvette last March, the South's navy would not be strongly challenged in general warfare.

North Korean Koksan, 170mm guns. Probably 500 or more of these
guns sit in hardened sites along the DMZ, within range of Seoul.

The two capabilities of North Korea that are truly daunting are in special-operations forces (SOF) and artillery systems. Leaving SOF for another day, I'll examine here the implications of the artillery threat.

 America's top general in Korea, Gen. Walter Sharp, said earlier this year that North Korea has the world's largest artillery force. It could wreak enormous destruction on Seoul if the North was stupid enough to start general war. That the North's decisive, total defeat would follow would be of little comfort to dead South Korean civilians, who could number in six figures.

No one knows just how many guns, rockets and missiles the North has, but it is known that the concentration along the DMZ is enormous. As a US Army artillery lieutenant in Korea in 1978, I served on the US Army's only active artillery firebase, called 4P1, about three kilometers from the DMZ. I remember being briefed that if the North chose, it could bury 4P1's three acres with 600 rounds of medium and heavy artillery in 10 minutes. 

The real threat is against Seoul and environs, which the North pointedly reminded the South a few months ago is a mere 50 kilometers from the DMZ. Seoul is a modern Asian city, meaning it is densely populated and is packed with high-rise buildings, hence wholly dependent on its modern road network for transportation and supply. Quite apart from the massive casualties the North could cause directly by shelling, the city could be paralyzed by rubbling of the roads, shutting down large-scale rescue or supply movements. As well, Seoul is a transportation hub and its chokepoints are well targeted by North Korean guns and rockets.

Add chemical warheads to the tons of high explosive and there is real potential for enormous catastrophe for the South. Yet it would literally be pointless for the North to wreak this havoc. Absent a following invasion, such shelling would serve no purpose except to kill. Of course, pointlessness is no reason to imagine the North would never do it, but one thing that the North's oligarchy, like all dictators, holds dear is its lives and power. For the North's rulers to initiate general war would mean regime destruction for them, not mere regime change, and they know it.

Hence their artillery systems are oriented toward retaliation rather than offensive initiative. The North's only defensive strategy is total war against the South and the United States. That is the reason, along with financial enrichment from weapons partners Iran and Pakistan, that the North has pursued an atomic-weapons program and a long-range missile program. North Korea has for years armed itself with rockets and missiles that can range all of South Korea, and all of Japan, too, meaning that every US base in the whole region is subject to attack. 

The authoritative Jane's Defense reported in 2003 that North Korea was close to having missiles that could reach the United States with atomic warheads. In 2004, the North's missile programs and its increased missile capabilities, coupled with its WMD development, was named the chief military concern by the United States. Gen. Leon J. LaPorte, then the US commander in Korea, said that North Korea was focusing on asymmetric capability, "those that provide a military advantage over more advanced militaries, such as that of the United States. In North Korea, that includes nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and missiles to deliver them at both short and long distances." 

This concern was well placed. In 2007, DOD's Missile Defense Agency announced that the North's Taep’o-dong-2 missile had a range of 9,300 miles with a 250 kilogram warhead, since upgraded to 750 kg. This missile may have entered initial operational capability last year, but, as in most everything about the North, details are sketchy. The Taep’o-dong-2 has one purpose: blackmail, to hold Honolulu, Juneau, Seattle and San Francisco hostage to deter American moves against North Korea. 

However, just as there is no upside for the North to begin a war, there is no payoff for the South or the United States to do so, either. Absent actual attacks against the North, its artillery and missiles will remain sheathed, except perhaps for occasional spasms such as Yeonpyeong - but those sorts of things have been going on since 1953. 

The stalemate on the Korean peninsula is 57 years old. Absent a grievous miscalculation by one side or another, it shows no signs of abating.