The worst North Korean nuclear threat isn't ICBMs

As bad as North Korea's ongoing ballistic-missile program is, the Kim regime has a weapons-delivery system that is far more ominous to the United States.

That this sub is a rust bucket doesn't mean it's not dangerous.

The Express reports,

While North Korea is still struggling to develop nuclear-headed airborne missiles, it is fast increasing its underwater military power. 

The country possess numerous submarines, which it has used with devastating effect in the past, with fears they are now being adapted to fire nuclear weapons. 

Even more worrying is the submarines’ ability to 'disappear' and avoid detection. In 2015 around 50 went missing, setting alarm bells ringing in Seoul and Tokyo.

Presently, the DPRK's sub threat cannot reach the United States, but it has for years used subs to ferry Northern special-ops teams to South Korea to mount raids and demolition. Seven years ago a DPRK sub torpedoed and sank a ROK naval vessel, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

Missiles from subs are called Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles, SLBMs, and long range missiles would not be required to strike South Korea or Japan severely if atomic warheads were ever fitted. CNBC reports,

The chilling thought of North Korea's fully submersible submarines firing a nuclear ballistic missile isn't as far-fetched as some might think. Pyongyang has made major advances in weapons in recent years and shown a willingness to use its submarines for offensive military actions.

North Korea has about 70 submarines in its fleet, but most of them are small, including 10 "midget" subs. There are believed to be only 20 "Romeo" class subs, a 1950s Soviet design but one that could still pose a serious threat to nearby countries even though they are very old and not stealthy. But, like Japan's kamikazes of World War 2, only one needs to get through to cause serious destruction.

Perhaps a more likely threat from subs are cruise missiles, simpler vehicles than SLBMs but more than capable of wreaking enormous devastation. North Korea is thought to have an active (but still mostly unrevealed) cruise missile program based on the fleeting appearance of a Russian model in a propaganda film.

The missile is believed to be similar to the Russian KH-35 missile, which came into service in 2003. 

Cruise missiles are weapons guided by on-board computers, used to attack specific targets. The majority of the North's known missiles are much larger missiles.

The North is under UN sanctions over its weapons and nuclear programmes.

Pyongyang has carried out three nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013, and is thought to have enough nuclear material for a small number of bombs.

However, analysts say the North does not appear to have successfully manufactured a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by its missiles.

Nor is it known whether the North's Romeo subs have been fitted to carry KH-35s.

Just a few days ago unusual US anti-submarine activity off California's coast led people to wonder whether a hostile submarine was lurking off the coast of California (see update below).

The idling presence of anti-submarine military crafts hovering off the United States' West Coast has prompted concerns of a possible threat to national security.

Concerns have circulated that a foreign submarine from North Korea or Russia could be the reason for the unusual military activity off the coast of California.

Three low-lying military aircraft were reportedly seen in the area using flight-tracking software, despite it not being a normal area of surveillance.

Among aircraft seen were the Navy EP-3E Aries II, which is used for electronic surveillance, a Navy P-3C Orion, used for submarine spotting, and a Boeing P-8 Poseidon used for anti-submarine warfare, InfoWars reported.

The military vessels were allegedly seen spanning the coastal waters from Los Angeles to the San Diego/Tijuana border near Mexico.

The website stated that a Royal Canadian CP-140 Orion, which is also known for its capability to spot submarines, entered the area at one point.

The Pentagon has not confirmed these activities, but civilian-radar mapping of the aircraft seems to support the reports.

The land-based missile threat is growing, too. Here is the BBC's map of the North's capabilities.

Potential sub-launched weapons extend the threat all the way to American shores, and with warnings of attack of only minutes if the sub is just outside American waters.

Update: And this isn't good, either: "North Korea may be able to arm missiles with sarin, Japan PM says."

Update, April 18: According to news reports, the NK missile that failed on launch April 16 was an SLBM. Some sources say that US defense agencies actually caused the failure by hacking the control software, which would be nice if true.

Second, I received this email from a reader I remember from back in the "old" days of blogging (you know, 12 years ago or so) who has a wealth of analysis on the apparent sub hunt off California that I linked to above from the Daily Mail's site. Here is what he said:

I'm a long ago P-3 crewman, so I followed this one with interest.

Several things strongly suggested it was an exercise:

• it is in an area where ASW exercises are often held

• the aircraft were being tracked by their ADSB transmissions. It is *very* unlikely that they would have ADSB on during real, as opposed to exercise, sorties. ADSB is used in aircraft today to allow the FAA to track them, and to allow them to track each other. In a real mission, the airspace would be cleared and under total control of the military, not the FAA. They certainly would not want civilians tracking, and reporting on those aircraft.

• there were three types of aircraft involved:

• P-3C - US Navy traditional ASW aircraft, now being phased out and replaced by the P-8 (737 airframe)

• Aurora (CP-140) - the Canadian version of the P-3 

• EP-3C - US Navy ELINT aircraft such as the VQ-1 squadron's aircraft that was forced down in China in 2001

It is unlikely that this mix would be out there - especially the Aurora - except for an exercise. And, I would expect P-8's to be involved in a real mission - they have superior systems. The EP-3C also would be an unlikely participant - the P-8 can probably do the ELINT for this sort of thing, and EP-3C's are a rare asset. They don't have much work to do near the west coast of the US, after all. I saw them at Atsugi Japan, close to the real targets in those days of Vietnam, China, North Korea and eastern USSR. A friend flew in them around Vietnam, but 50 years ago.

It is  unlikely that the Norks could send an ancient Soviet diesel sub that far.

The Facebook VP (Patrol) Navy forum discussed this issue, and they have people from before my P-3 time (1968) to very recently. All concluded that this was an exercise. I think the whole fuss was started by Alex Jones, not the most reliable source.

Of course, we could be wrong about the situation.

BTW, enjoyed your article on the motives for killing Jesus.

Regards,
John Moore 

(former blogger of Useful Fools back in the day)

 Very much appreciated, John, and thank you for your service to our country. And yes, had I known that the story originated off InfoWars, I probably would have passed it by.