Netanyahu is flying to Washington today to meet with Obama tomorrow. The goal of both is to survive the meeting with kissy faces. Arutz Sheva reports that both men are strategically interested in doing nothing controversial.
Both leaders “have a deceptively simple mission: getting their picture taken together,” the Washington Post reported Monday night. “There are going to be more photographers there than at the Academy Awards,” Israeli’s Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren quipped.
Prime Minister Netanyahu left Israel late Monday night, leaving behind almost wall-to-wall opposition by the whips of his coalition parties who oppose an extension of the 10-month building freeze against building for Jews in Judea and Samaria. The freeze is to expire in September, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has demanded it be extended permanently as a condition for his entering direct talks with Israel over the establishment of the PA as a new Arab country.
The only coalition partner not opposing the freeze is the Labor party, which has only 13 Knesset Members but which is headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who has been on much better terms with U.S. President Barack Obama than the Prime Minister.
Netanyahu is still remembered for selling out to Clinton and Israelis are scrutinizing his every move right now for signs of a repeat performance with Obama. The fact that he betrayed his foreign minister and coalition partner, Leiberman, last week with a completely useless appeasement gesture to Turkey pretty much put the prime minister on notice.
In fact, the abortive diplomatic effort with Turkey has resulted in exactly the opposite. Yesterday, YNET News reported that the Turkish foreign minister said that unless the Israelis apologize and compensate Turkey for the flotilla incident, Turkey will sever all relations with Israel. In the words of another Nobel Laureate, Professor Yisrael Aumann, Turkey like the PA is utilizing the Game Theory gambit called the Blackmailer's Paradox.
Israel’s political stand is based on the principle that agreements must be reached with the Arabs at any price, that the lack of agreements is untenable. In the Blackmailer’s Paradox, Reuben’s behavior is the result of his feeling that he must leave the room with some money, no matter how little. Because Reuben cannot imagine himself leaving the room with empty hands, he is easy prey for Simon [who makes unrealistic demands up front from which he will not budge], and ends up leaving with a certain amount of money, but in the role of the humiliated loser. This is similar to the way Israel handles negotiations, her mental state making her unable to reject suggestions that do not advance her interests.
Right now, Netanyahu is perceived as a Reuven--an actor willing to give anything to close a deal. When Israelis ask why, they can only assume that Netanyahu caves in to US demands. Shafting his coalition partner does not help matters at all.
The key person to watch here, however, is Mr. Obama. Despite his tanking support at home, he's perceived as desparate to score some political mileage. Alas, his stature in the Middle East is pretty thin. More to the point, his best chance to improve his standing across the board is to support vigorously Israel, ignore the building freeze, and talk tough to the Turks.
Israelis are not hopeful.
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