Saturday, November 3, 2012

Saturday election projection

By Donald Sensing

Posted Saturday evening, Nov. 3, 10 p.m. CDT

This is RealClearPolitics' election projection map, as of time of this posting, which serves as the basis for my two estimates (hi-lo) below. It includes tossups, but I did not; I called them for one candidate or the other.



Here's my "high" call on Saturday evening, Nov. 3. I left no toss-up states. Click image for larger view.



Now, the interesting thing is that I can be wrong by a margin of 52 electoral votes and Romney will still win. Like so: Turn Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Ohio deep blue and Romney still gets 274.


You can create your own such map here.

Related:

Jim Cramer's "Obama Obliteration"

The electoral nightmare scenario

Fred Barnes on why the demographics favor Romney

Elizabeth Price Foley:

MY GUT TELLS ME ROMNEY WINS:  A rare, honest assessment of the presidential race by Kyle Wingfield of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Winfield observes:

My head tells me Obama will be re-elected. My gut tells me this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.

My gut tells me the surge Obama has seen in national polls during the past week comes from voters he wasn’t going to lose to Romney, but could have lost to apathy, who will show up and cast ballots for him — but mostly in states he was going to win anyway. My gut tells me we might be seeing a repeat of 2000, when it looked like the Democrat would win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, only for the scenario to flip in the final days.

My gut tells me Romney picks up North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and at least one of Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania — and will become the 45th president of the United States.

My gut tells me the same thing.

Which is exactly what my "Low" map above shows.

Stephen Green runs through several different maps, ranging from Obama Blowout to Romney Blowout to finally his own actual prediction - and it's even more red than my high estimate, above.

Bookmark and Share